October 31

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over Strait of Hormuz traffic is announced by 11:59 PM ET on the stated date.§1

Ambiguous announcements

If ambiguity remains, the market stays open until definitive confirmation or 14 calendar days (ET) after the last country's first potentially qualifying…§11

After 14 days

If no definitive confirmation by day 14, the market resolves on the totality of information available from the resolution sources then.§12

Contradicted evidence

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence governs where it is contradicted by the totality of information.§13

Separate policy moves

Separate announcements of individual policies do not qualify if not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.§6

Counted

The countries counted are Oman and Iran; both must announce acceptance of the same qualifying agreement.§4

Source

Official information from the governments of Oman and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.§14

Closes

Oct 31, 2026 · 23:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 33.5¢
• November 30 23.5¢
• October 31 13.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.