Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No | 35,112 | 77.3¢ | $29.8K | Proven+$7.12 per $100 · 818 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 25,637 | 78.1¢ | $21.8K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| juce0xc185…d1b8 | No | 15,568 | 66.0¢ | $13.2K | — |
| beere0x89d0…5a1e | No | 11,659 | 66.0¢ | $9.91K | — |
| eathtu0x8d03…7de0 | No | 11,446 | 66.0¢ | $9.73K | — |
| M2sx92kljs420xb4f2…e5fa | No | 5,893 | 66.0¢ | $5.01K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 549 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 32,636 | 48.7¢ | $4.9K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| FTX2.00x0a26…1851 | No | 4,005 | 64.0¢ | $3.4K | — |
| sodas0xa10b…e128 | Yes | 22,014 | 34.0¢ | $3.3K | — |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 3,800 | 82.8¢ | $3.23K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| feichuan0x267b…5941 | Yes | 18,446 | 34.0¢ | $2.77K | — |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 3,092 | 81.0¢ | $2.63K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| LehmanBrother2.00x5fbf…8925 | No | 2,811 | 70.7¢ | $2.39K | New12 settled bets |
| 0805260x9ad7…4084 | No | 2,546 | 82.4¢ | $2.16K | — |
| Everestpredictions0xceca…3f67 | No | 2,431 | 80.9¢ | $2.07K | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 12,859 | 20.7¢ | $1.93K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | No | 2,200 | 53.1¢ | $1.87K | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| RdogTest0x9908…062c | No | 2,145 | 82.4¢ | $1.82K | — |
| 0x1283…2a9d | No | 1,936 | 48.8¢ | $1.65K | — |
| sushan0x7d6d…261b | No | 1,787 | 66.0¢ | $1.52K | — |
| jyPoz0x6cf9…cffd | No | 1,712 | 86.0¢ | $1.46K | Proven+$2.78 per $100 · 195 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | No | 1,700 | 55.6¢ | $1.45K | — |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 8,705 | 17.0¢ | $1.31K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 1,517 | 38.6¢ | $1.29K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 914 bets |
| OldZz0x298b…f406 | Yes | 7,770 | 25.9¢ | $1.17K | Losing−$10.84 per $100 · 225 bets |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 1,327 | 76.4¢ | $1.13K | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | No | 1,229 | 65.6¢ | $1.04K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 1,145 | 86.5¢ | $973 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Arman20x9453…1a48 | Yes | 6,413 | 19.2¢ | $962 | — |
| nmnr0xcb86…feda | No | 1,015 | 82.2¢ | $863 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,000 | 85.5¢ | $850 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,040 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | Yes | 5,381 | 24.5¢ | $807 | Positive+$3.17 per $100 · 158 bets |
| MerhabaKardesim0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | 5,009 | 24.7¢ | $751 | Positive+$4.34 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| SPY-KT0x389a…397d | No | 791 | 66.4¢ | $673 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 749 | 44.1¢ | $636 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 711 | 41.4¢ | $604 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 673 | 49.7¢ | $572 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 630 | 40.0¢ | $535 | — |
| Hellboy-winner0x6045…7304 | No | 600 | 82.0¢ | $510 | — |
| pink110x97d1…18ef | No | 588 | 67.0¢ | $500 | New67 settled bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 574 | 65.4¢ | $488 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | Yes | 3,000 | 18.2¢ | $450 | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | Yes | 2,594 | 14.0¢ | $389 | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich0xf0ee…4b33 | No | 445 | 71.4¢ | $378 | — |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | No | 439 | 45.5¢ | $373 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| MarvelFan940x0978…00e6 | Yes | 2,400 | 50.9¢ | $360 | Break-even−$0.34 per $100 · 648 bets |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 387 | 69.0¢ | $329 | — |
| BIsLosingMoney0x79f4…4afb | Yes | 2,030 | 40.3¢ | $305 | — |
| iForgor0x0562…9d66 | Yes | 2,000 | 25.2¢ | $300 | — |
| gateway-0xa20c…451a | Yes | 2,000 | 17.0¢ | $300 | Losing−$1.87 per $100 · 224 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | Yes | 1,892 | 59.9¢ | $284 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 300 | 86.0¢ | $255 | — |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | No | 297 | 67.4¢ | $252 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| RowenSecret0x3626…e168 | No | 290 | 69.6¢ | $247 | — |
| iamnotwhoiwas0x2035…dc1c | No | 286 | 67.7¢ | $243 | — |
| onthewave0xc302…f388 | No | 256 | 78.0¢ | $218 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 201 bets |
| badonde10x015e…abb0 | Yes | 1,373 | 36.4¢ | $206 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 233 | 81.3¢ | $198 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Cactu0xc765…8544 | No | 230 | 87.0¢ | $195 | — |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 200 | 86.0¢ | $170 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 200 | 75.5¢ | $170 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | No | 200 | 80.0¢ | $170 | — |
| pink.impala0x9c97…4569 | Yes | 1,109 | 21.1¢ | $166 | Break-even−$0.67 per $100 · 387 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | Yes | 1,046 | 19.1¢ | $157 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Notarealtrader0xc133…352a | No | 183 | 81.9¢ | $156 | — |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | Yes | 1,024 | 15.9¢ | $154 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 180 | 85.0¢ | $153 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 1,000 | 15.0¢ | $150 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 1,000 | 31.0¢ | $150 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 1,000 | 20.8¢ | $150 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,000 | 27.4¢ | $150 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 1,000 | 17.5¢ | $150 | — |
| 0xd046…c496 | No | 170 | 79.8¢ | $145 | — |
| 0x9318…2395 | No | 150 | 40.0¢ | $128 | — |
| DonPanic0x50b2…c94a | Yes | 760 | 28.4¢ | $114 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 2,020 bets |
| Serega-pro0xcfb5…7d2d | Yes | 690 | 29.3¢ | $103 | — |
| Optimus-0xd5b9…e44e | Yes | 592 | 50.0¢ | $89 | Proven+$7.77 per $100 · 3,039 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 534 | 16.3¢ | $80 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| Jep-G0x993c…6787 | Yes | 463 | 22.0¢ | $69 | Proven+$2.34 per $100 · 2,215 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 450 | 32.2¢ | $68 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| Analista.0x92d0…269e | Yes | 414 | 23.0¢ | $62 | — |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | Yes | 356 | 41.0¢ | $53 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 340 | 21.0¢ | $51 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | Yes | 330 | 26.6¢ | $50 | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Septen0x4405…6a37 | Yes | 313 | 16.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 309 | 18.4¢ | $46 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
| TheDao0x26f8…a969 | Yes | 300 | 34.0¢ | $45 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 299 | 21.7¢ | $45 | — |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 250 | 31.0¢ | $38 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| OkieDokiePeon0x9ddf…2c83 | Yes | 225 | 13.2¢ | $34 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,178 bets |
| ggwpbrothers0x7a3c…977c | Yes | 212 | 25.0¢ | $32 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | Yes | 212 | 23.3¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 202 | 15.0¢ | $30 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| Faston0xa7fe…1f3e | Yes | 200 | 36.7¢ | $30 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 200 | 17.0¢ | $30 | — |
| SDODNDPD0x3458…b5a7 | Yes | 196 | 51.0¢ | $29 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 3,300 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 195 | 15.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 194 | 18.5¢ | $29 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| isaaclegend0x74ff…7926 | Yes | 152 | 33.0¢ | $23 | New36 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.