Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 4,594 | 35.6¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 2,000 | 63.0¢ | $1.23K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| OneLastHurrah0x7803…9e91 | No | 1,313 | 65.0¢ | $807 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,312 | 64.0¢ | $807 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,000 | 62.5¢ | $615 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,042 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | No | 622 | 63.2¢ | $383 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 707 | 38.7¢ | $272 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | Yes | 297 | 37.3¢ | $114 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 175 | 64.0¢ | $108 | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 174 | 65.0¢ | $107 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 147 | 62.0¢ | $90 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 106 | 56.9¢ | $65 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 100 | 65.5¢ | $62 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 144 | 37.0¢ | $55 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 133 | 40.0¢ | $51 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 118 | 38.6¢ | $46 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | Yes | 116 | 59.1¢ | $45 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| ars7an0x3898…bc3a | Yes | 114 | 44.1¢ | $44 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 100 | 38.0¢ | $39 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 100 | 40.0¢ | $39 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 100 | 34.0¢ | $39 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 96 | 44.7¢ | $37 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| Juzy0x020c…f6c9 | No | 50 | 68.0¢ | $31 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 68.0¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| David9510x97d2…1ea5 | No | 47 | 64.0¢ | $29 | — |
| pink.impala0x9c97…4569 | Yes | 63 | 39.7¢ | $24 | Break-even−$0.67 per $100 · 387 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 51 | 36.0¢ | $20 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| tcirkven0xa0e3…fb80 | Yes | 50 | 40.0¢ | $19 | — |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | Yes | 50 | 37.0¢ | $19 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 45 | 38.8¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| Po1yBot-6NEazyE4Ef0x87d1…3da3 | Yes | 33 | 38.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No | 20 | 42.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$7.12 per $100 · 818 bets |
| 0x0174…95b0 | Yes | 24 | 41.0¢ | $9 | — |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | Yes | 23 | 37.5¢ | $9 | — |
| ArthurGreen0xd5db…3c45 | Yes | 20 | 35.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$4.68 per $100 · 1,000 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 20 | 39.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 53.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 20 | 48.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 20 | 36.7¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| aenews60x7475…2edf | No | 11 | 47.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Seer-U0x635d…43f8 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xe308…40ae | No | 10 | 60.0¢ | $6 | — |
| blisik0x93ed…7e69 | No | 7 | 54.0¢ | $5 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 38.0¢ | $4 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $4 | — |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $4 | — |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | Yes | 10 | 38.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $4 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $4 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $4 | — |
| flyxiaye0x7b7b…6a5f | Yes | 8 | 37.0¢ | $3 | — |
| LeninLenin0x7e92…c6ed | No | 5 | 66.0¢ | $3 | — |
| WhiteRiceHoldCo0xeb03…5d15 | No | 4 | 55.0¢ | $3 | — |
| jenendiic8340x85b5…3c42 | Yes | 7 | 38.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0nxjl90dmgkp0x41df…f174 | Yes | 6 | 38.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 3 | 66.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
| 0x96e9…c01d | Yes | 5 | 37.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$22.02 per $100 · 121 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 3 | 40.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 122,975+ bets · updating |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | No | 1 | 66.0¢ | $0 | — |
| CopyMEyouwillwin0x8d58…4205 | No | 1 | 61.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mangostein0x544f…4cb9 | No | 1 | 62.0¢ | $0 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | Yes | 1 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Flingflonger0xecef…4909 | No | 0 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| kor-and-m0x0b14…f1f5 | No | 0 | 68.0¢ | $0 | — |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 48.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| agentcal0x42b7…abff | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 38.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 8 shares each side · Show
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Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play