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Topic · Geopolitics
12 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
1.5% of Polymarket
Events · markets
8 · 12
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
4 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Proven traders lean No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 · 4 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $559.0K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:23 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 |
| $469.8K |
| Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $269.5K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| TeamA0x9ba9…3ce9 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $179.0K | New1 settled bet |
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $166.6K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| shibagege0xb6c8…b9e6 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $121.4K | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 395 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $114.3K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $104.2K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,012 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $81.3K | Proven+$7.99 per $100 · 518 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $80.3K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 773 bets |
| TeemuPukki0xc254…3f73 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $73.9K | Positive+$1.78 per $100 · 1,561 bets |
| Llalalala0x05e2…6e12 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $61.7K | Proven+$11.42 per $100 · 125 bets |
| Clicker10xc884…e17e | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $61.4K | New24 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $58.9K | New76 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $56.6K | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,010 bets |
| yomayo0x3e35…4956 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $55.6K | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 106 bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $52.0K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| zb80x0224…292a | No on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 | $50.4K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 1,466 bets |
| vacoolaaa0x464e…1a67 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $47.3K | Losing−$3.60 per $100 · 218 bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $47.2K | Proven+$4.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| e888880x0d15…c454 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $47.2K | Losing−$2.14 per $100 · 167 bets |
| 0x485a…21cb | Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $30.0K | New55 bets |
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No on October 31 | $29.8K | Proven+$7.12 per $100 · 818 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $26.3K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| Djfere0x768c…015d | Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $24.8K | New9 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.