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Topic · Geopolitics
60 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
4.1% of Polymarket
Events · markets
37 · 60
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 97.9¢ | up 0.2 points this week | $6.07M |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 14:35 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No |
| 97.2¢ |
| down 0.3 points this week |
| $4.23M |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 95.2¢ | down 0.3 points this week | $0.70M |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an | 67.5¢ | down 4 points this week | $0.37M |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | No | 96.4¢ | down 0.5 points this week | $0.21M |
| Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | Dong Jun | 8.3¢ | up 0.2 points this week | $42.7K |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Lee Shu-chuan | 54.5¢ | down 0.5 points this week | $41.4K |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | No | 97.5¢ | down 0.1 points this week | $33.7K |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...? | December 31 | 72.5¢ | down 0.5 points this week | $29.4K |
| China coup attempt by...? | December 31, 2027 | 21.5¢ | – | $28.4K |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $546.8K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 720 bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $434.7K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| winforretire0xa4c3…bbb2 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $392.6K | New27 bets |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $382.0K | New21 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $353.5K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| 0xrc0x4004…c40b | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $348.1K | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 340 bets |
| llh0x8349…c99d | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $318.8K | New73 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $318.4K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| allenzzz0xe749…f771 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $259.5K | Proven+$2.10 per $100 · 229 bets |
| randomgo0x51df…458f | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $242.8K | New0 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.