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Topic · Geopolitics
63 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
4.0% of Polymarket
Events · markets
38 · 63
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Biggest first · chance of Yes
| Market | Event | Chance | This week | Ends | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2.1¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.07M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:23 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| 2.9¢ |
| up 0.3 points this week |
| Jan 1 |
| $4.23M |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 4.8¢ | up 0.3 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.70M |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | 4.0¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.21M |
| Puma Shen | Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 33.1¢ | up 4.7 points this week | Nov 29 | $0.21M |
| Chiang Wan-an | Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 67.0¢ | down 5 points this week | Nov 29 | $0.16M |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | US x China Military clash before 2027? | 2.5¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $33.7K |
| December 31 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...? | 65.5¢ | down 7.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $32.6K |
| December 31, 2026 | China coup attempt by...? | 3.8¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $28.4K |
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | 82.5¢ | down 9 points this week | Nov 29 | $23.8K |
| Su Chiao-hui | New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 46.5¢ | up 3 points this week | Nov 29 | $22.5K |
| Lee Shu-chuan | New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 54.0¢ | down 3.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $18.8K |
| Ko Chih-en | Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | 28.8¢ | down 7.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $11.8K |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | 1.0¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $11.3K |
| Ann Kao | Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | 87.5¢ | down 5.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $11.1K |
| Cai Qi | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 2.8¢ | up 1.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $9.5K |
| Dong Jun | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 8.3¢ | up 0.3 points this week | Jan 1 | $8.6K |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | 6.9¢ | up 3.3 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.8K |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | 6.3¢ | up 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.9K |
| Zhang Shengmin | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 3.1¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.4K |
| Lai Jui-lung | Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | 72.0¢ | up 8 points this week | Nov 29 | $5.3K |
| Li Xi | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 4.1¢ | down 0.8 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.2K |
| Ding Xuexiang | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 4.7¢ | up 1.9 points this week | Jan 1 | $4.5K |
| Chung Tung-chin | Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner | 96.0¢ | up 2.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $3.7K |
| December 31 | Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...? | 94.5¢ | up 0.9 points this week | Jan 1 | $3.6K |
| Wu Hsiu-hua | Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | 71.5¢ | down 11.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.8K |
| Chen Ying | Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | 26.7¢ | up 9.8 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.8K |
| Wang Yi | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 3.1¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.7K |
| TSMC | Which companies will the US take a stake in? | 13.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.7K |
| Cheng Chao-fang | Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | 60.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $2.7K |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | Next leader out of power before 2027? | 0.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $2.4K |
| Chang Chia-chun | Yunlin County Magistrate Election Winner | 80.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $2.3K |
| Wang Huning | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 3.4¢ | down 0.9 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.3K |
| Wang Chung-ming | Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner | 75.0¢ | down 2.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.3K |
| Zhao Leji | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 2.1¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.2K |
| Li Qiang | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 1.6¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.2K |
| Chang San-cheng | Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner | 92.5¢ | – | Nov 29 | $2.2K |
| Hsu Hsin-ying | Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | 35.5¢ | up 2.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.1K |
| Ho Hsin-chun | Taichung Mayor Election Winner | 27.4¢ | up 14.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.9K |
| Johnny Chiang | Taichung Mayor Election Winner | 74.0¢ | down 10.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.8K |
| Tung Tzu-wei | Keelung Mayor Election Winner | 20.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $1.5K |
| Chen Ting-fei | Tainan Mayor Election Winner | 88.0¢ | up 2 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.5K |
| Chen Su-yueh | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 92.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.4K |
| Hsieh Kuo-liang | Keelung Mayor Election Winner | 75.5¢ | down 4 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.4K |
| Kuo Hsi | Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $1.4K |
| Wu Shu-chin | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 26.5¢ | up 8 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.0K |
| Yang Chiung-ying | Taichung Mayor Election Winner | 0.4¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $994 |
| Chen Chen-chung | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 64.0¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $974 |
| Yu Shu-chen | Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | 81.0¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $951 |
| Xi Jinping | Who will Trump speak to by October 31? | 12.0¢ | up 4 points this week | Nov 1 | $755 |