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Topic · Geopolitics
63 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
4.0% of Polymarket
Events · markets
38 · 63
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Proven traders lean No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 · 1 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $547.1K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 721 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:11 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 |
| No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 |
| $434.8K |
| Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| winforretire0xa4c3…bbb2 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $392.8K | New27 bets |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $382.1K | New21 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $353.7K | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,010 bets |
| 0xrc0x4004…c40b | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $348.1K | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 340 bets |
| llh0x8349…c99d | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $319.0K | New73 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $318.6K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| allenzzz0xe749…f771 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $259.6K | Proven+$2.10 per $100 · 229 bets |
| randomgo0x51df…458f | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $242.9K | New0 bets |
| momom0x3c8a…b45a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $213.8K | New43 bets |
| Whitelied910x28aa…28f5 | No on China x Taiwan military clash before 2027 | $184.6K | New45 bets |
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $139.7K | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
| sheen070x60c1…f605 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $132.7K | New2 bets |
| uycghj40x67ce…3881 | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $132.5K | New81 bets |
| TraderSDG0x6ae0…1472 | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $97.1K | New17 bets |
| Top1-J0xa576…8678 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $92.4K | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 606 bets |
| po185030x22ff…5254 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $91.4K | New42 bets |
| Bruce09130x7460…2936 | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $88.5K | New45 bets |
| 0xf8f9…a2cb | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $86.8K | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 174 bets |
| 0x7d5d…91d8 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $82.2K | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 268 bets |
| chriszyy30x052f…53fb | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $82.2K | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 297 bets |
| 0xd8e0…c1a7 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $77.2K | New32 bets |
| IGORS0x1496…ee6f | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $77.0K | New14 bets |
| 0x0573…5f76 | No on Xi Jinping out before 2027 | $76.1K | New12 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.