Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
11 proven traders are on Yes, 18 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | No | 524,237 | 74.3¢ | $438K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 434 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No | 370,470 | 73.6¢ | $309K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No | 260,000 | 85.5¢ | $217K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,011 bets |
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No | 250,000 | 75.7¢ | $209K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| TheQuietRisk0x0a85…fe9d | Yes | 1,056,379 | 23.5¢ | $174K | Proven+$22.32 per $100 · 109 bets |
| xm390x696d…f89d | Yes | 1,008,151 | 18.1¢ | $166K | Losing−$72.09 per $100 · 110 bets |