Market · 1 of 2 outcomes

December 31

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 08:50 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market · 1 of 2 outcomes

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Chance of Yes

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

16 proven traders are on Yes, 16 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
Renan20300x88c4…129a	No	109,995	82.5¢	$91.8K	Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 472 bets
657657570x2974…9c23	No	99,568	80.4¢	$83.1K	Proven

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for Bab el-Mandeb Strait of 10 or less for any date between creation and the listed date.§1
No data 14 days: If no data for the listed date is published within 14 calendar days (ET) after it, the market resolves on data published to that point.§4
Earlier revisions: Revisions before data for the listed date is published are considered but do not disqualify a previously published qualifying data point.§5
Later revisions: Revisions made after data for the listed date is published are not considered.§6
Counted: 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.§1
Source: IMF PortWatch, "Arrivals of Ships" data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.§7
Closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 08:50 UTC. Not financial advice.