Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 17:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
16 proven traders are on Yes, 16 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | No | 109,995 | 82.5¢ | $91.8K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 472 bets |
| 657657570x2974…9c23 | No | 99,568 | 80.4¢ | $83.1K | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 376 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 44,336 | 75.9¢ | $37K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 206,464 | 18.8¢ | $34.1K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | No | 40,000 | 83.0¢ | $33.4K | Proven+$4.91 per $100 · 2,290 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No | 30,000 | 81.9¢ | $25.1K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| hymolu0x17e3…9ba5 | No | 30,000 | 83.0¢ | $25.1K | New70 settled bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 24,093 | 79.7¢ | $20.1K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No | 20,455 | 79.7¢ | $17.1K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| DiaMat0x5ff7…f7f0 | No | 18,000 | 82.2¢ | $15K | New96 settled bets |
| agagyu0x2136…ee56 | No | 16,477 | 82.3¢ | $13.8K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 178 bets |
| apmt0x328d…f7a9 | No | 14,200 | 79.4¢ | $11.9K | Proven+$9.98 per $100 · 114 bets |
| sabsabinxz0xd3ec…6603 | No | 13,426 | 79.0¢ | $11.2K | Proven+$23.86 per $100 · 101 bets |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | Yes | 62,632 | 18.3¢ | $10.3K | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | Yes | 55,281 | 16.2¢ | $9.12K | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 968 bets |
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No | 10,719 | 83.8¢ | $8.95K | Proven+$7.09 per $100 · 821 bets |
| flexibleagedbeef0xbbc5…b08b | No | 10,693 | 84.1¢ | $8.93K | — |
| SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e | No | 10,150 | 81.7¢ | $8.48K | Losing−$5.42 per $100 · 344 bets |
| forinnerpsandr1x112220x5c14…cc49 | No | 10,000 | 82.9¢ | $8.35K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 298 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 10,000 | 83.8¢ | $8.35K | New60 settled bets |
| Atlantislq0x3968…2b0f | Yes | 49,291 | 19.2¢ | $8.13K | New54 settled bets |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | No | 8,000 | 76.7¢ | $6.68K | Positive+$1.42 per $100 · 1,480 bets |
| 50388131850x453a…81d2 | Yes | 40,200 | 20.4¢ | $6.63K | Proven+$17.49 per $100 · 140 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | No | 6,666 | 78.0¢ | $5.57K | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| bukajkeceram79800x9af2…dc0d | No | 6,520 | 84.4¢ | $5.44K | New39 settled bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | No | 6,000 | 85.0¢ | $5.01K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | No | 6,000 | 83.4¢ | $5.01K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| aannggg0xf39f…83bf | No | 5,989 | 83.0¢ | $5K | New0 settled bets |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 30,000 | 21.3¢ | $4.95K | New6 settled bets |
| 0xd640…480c | No | 5,088 | 85.0¢ | $4.25K | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| LukiB0x730d…d448 | No | 4,600 | 84.0¢ | $3.84K | New87 settled bets |
| 0x2282…73e8 | No | 4,372 | 80.4¢ | $3.65K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 102 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | No | 4,200 | 80.8¢ | $3.51K | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| uraw0x8a4c…2c4c | No | 3,933 | 81.4¢ | $3.28K | Positive+$9.98 per $100 · 150 bets |
| -Yang-0x43a6…8b32 | No | 3,928 | 78.4¢ | $3.28K | Proven+$7.85 per $100 · 427 bets |
| G.laila0xa092…11e3 | No | 3,800 | 84.2¢ | $3.17K | Break-even+$0.68 per $100 · 414 bets |
| cocobobo0x6122…fc91 | No | 3,200 | 84.0¢ | $2.67K | New49 settled bets |
| Inchoroi0x058f…4883 | No | 3,109 | 74.0¢ | $2.6K | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 301 bets |
| nedsta0xf92a…a517 | No | 3,000 | 86.0¢ | $2.5K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 466 bets |
| AlphaBetaGamma23570x5652…00c9 | Yes | 15,000 | 21.3¢ | $2.47K | Proven+$5.59 per $100 · 870 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 14,643 | 16.0¢ | $2.42K | Positive+$1.58 per $100 · 639 bets |
| BillyBoy940x94b0…9d34 | No | 2,700 | 83.5¢ | $2.25K | Positive+$1.21 per $100 · 515 bets |
| 0x071b…d08d | No | 2,445 | 82.4¢ | $2.04K | New8 settled bets |
| Llama670x020f…de5e | Yes | 12,331 | 19.0¢ | $2.03K | New22 settled bets |
| RR344KK0x52b9…df61 | No | 2,415 | 83.0¢ | $2.02K | New26 settled bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 2,166 | 79.0¢ | $1.81K | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Telepath-One0x0fde…8ab1 | Yes | 10,345 | 19.3¢ | $1.71K | Losing−$1.50 per $100 · 1,167 bets |
| Hull0xa591…9079 | No | 2,006 | 83.5¢ | $1.68K | Losing−$2.17 per $100 · 2,771 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 2,003 | 79.0¢ | $1.67K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| deltasniper0x0826…0b32 | No | 2,000 | 84.0¢ | $1.67K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 495 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 9,908 | 18.9¢ | $1.63K | Proven+$5.30 per $100 · 771 bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 1,810 | 83.0¢ | $1.51K | New83 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,601 | 81.6¢ | $1.34K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,005 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 1,550 | 84.4¢ | $1.29K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,985 bets |
| Xzibit690x0af4…89b4 | No | 1,500 | 83.0¢ | $1.25K | Proven+$5.57 per $100 · 707 bets |
| bonebot0x8f21…b935 | No | 1,471 | 68.0¢ | $1.23K | Break-even−$0.08 per $100 · 1,308 bets |
| Logan.0x5109…5e9c | Yes | 7,346 | 33.7¢ | $1.21K | Proven+$6.53 per $100 · 2,293 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 1,395 | 74.4¢ | $1.16K | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 326 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 7,000 | 16.7¢ | $1.16K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | Yes | 6,860 | 21.7¢ | $1.13K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 1,333 | 83.2¢ | $1.11K | Positive+$1.86 per $100 · 4,103 bets |
| scoutwing0x18b9…0d26 | No | 1,251 | 80.0¢ | $1.04K | New21 settled bets |
| pink110x97d1…18ef | No | 1,245 | 82.7¢ | $1.04K | New67 settled bets |
| Jin-20260x4b30…4b79 | No | 1,230 | 82.8¢ | $1.03K | New91 settled bets |
| Debosnys0x7e30…1e50 | Yes | 6,000 | 16.1¢ | $990 | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 3,054 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 5,000 | 33.0¢ | $825 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 2,140 bets |
| Diplopia20x272c…7f07 | Yes | 5,000 | 16.8¢ | $825 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 813 bets |
| maritime63070x5c29…358e | Yes | 4,691 | 18.7¢ | $774 | Losing−$13.87 per $100 · 121 bets |
| 0x00c0…4610 | Yes | 3,901 | 38.4¢ | $644 | New77 settled bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 3,750 | 17.0¢ | $619 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,975 bets |
| MrNFT0xb8e6…9767 | Yes | 3,746 | 23.3¢ | $618 | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 2,095 bets |
| compute0xd0d9…d6db | Yes | 3,703 | 19.8¢ | $611 | Positive+$5.67 per $100 · 360 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 3,426 | 20.3¢ | $565 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 2,879 | 17.7¢ | $475 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 3,316 bets |
| franklin100x59fd…c2e2 | Yes | 2,800 | 15.0¢ | $462 | New69 settled bets |
| telloier0x795b…623a | Yes | 2,800 | 17.0¢ | $462 | New9 settled bets |
| TitanRTX0xf6b0…b8dc | Yes | 2,778 | 18.0¢ | $458 | New30 settled bets |
| 0x0b91…ae77 | Yes | 2,655 | 17.0¢ | $438 | Proven+$10.22 per $100 · 659 bets |
| goatboss0x56e7…cf24 | Yes | 2,600 | 17.2¢ | $429 | New35 settled bets |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | Yes | 2,500 | 16.0¢ | $413 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 1,629 bets |
| Optimus-0xd5b9…e44e | Yes | 2,400 | 25.7¢ | $396 | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 3,043 bets |
| JasonPunos0x47ae…ee94 | Yes | 2,400 | 17.0¢ | $396 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,101 | 19.0¢ | $347 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,062 bets |
| hahaha130x491e…667f | Yes | 2,000 | 21.0¢ | $330 | New43 settled bets |
| simbarashejm0x3453…8251 | Yes | 1,946 | 16.0¢ | $321 | New0 settled bets |
| laccsv20xe691…3cae | Yes | 1,848 | 21.0¢ | $305 | New11 settled bets |
| Phenium0xe9f2…ddd0 | Yes | 1,618 | 18.0¢ | $267 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 623 bets |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9 | Yes | 1,579 | 19.0¢ | $261 | New63 settled bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 1,544 | 17.8¢ | $255 | Proven+$8.36 per $100 · 1,242 bets |
| 0x3fb1…517f | Yes | 1,520 | 20.4¢ | $251 | New40 settled bets |
| wisechinaman0xdec2…b015 | Yes | 1,500 | 17.0¢ | $248 | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,312 bets |
| TestingMyGangster0x3a51…fd7f | Yes | 1,493 | 20.0¢ | $246 | Losing−$3.75 per $100 · 142 bets |
| zentrade0x7fb2…cb9a | Yes | 1,384 | 28.9¢ | $228 | New56 settled bets |
| AmericaOnly0xe7ec…9dda | Yes | 1,361 | 21.5¢ | $225 | Proven+$2.89 per $100 · 157 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 1,311 | 21.6¢ | $216 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| 0x43cf…d143 | Yes | 1,244 | 24.1¢ | $205 | Positive+$9.76 per $100 · 115 bets |
| yuhyuhyuhy3523520xbd04…fbb0 | Yes | 1,179 | 18.0¢ | $194 | Proven+$13.58 per $100 · 548 bets |
| 0x277f…ed32 | Yes | 1,111 | 27.0¢ | $183 | Losing−$9.05 per $100 · 120 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 1,080 | 34.4¢ | $178 | Proven+$3.47 per $100 · 1,719 bets |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | Yes | 1,030 | 17.1¢ | $170 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.