October 31

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for Bab el-Mandeb Strait of 10 or less for any date from market…§1

Resolution timing

The market resolves as soon as that moving average is equal to or below 10, or once data for the listed date is published with no such value.§3

No data 14 days

If no data for the listed date is published within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, the market resolves on data published up to that point.§4

Earlier revisions

Revisions made before data for the listed date is published are considered and do not disqualify a previously published qualifying data point.§5

Later revisions

Revisions made after data for the listed date is published are not considered.§6

Counted

The 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.§1

Source

IMF PortWatch, "Arrivals of Ships" data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the stated portwatch.imf.org page.§7

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 15.5¢
• October 31 6.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.