Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 101.2¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 521 | 76.0¢ | $422 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 200 | 78.0¢ | $162 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0xe432…934a |
| Yes |
| 657 |
| 21.0¢ |
| $125 |
| Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 224 | 20.8¢ | $43 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 200 | 35.0¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 199 | 20.0¢ | $38 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
|