Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 203 | 79.0¢ | $150 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 351 | 22.8¢ | $91 | Losing−$5.64 per $100 · 56,263+ bets · updating |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 80 | 76.3¢ | $59 | — |
| sunnynotbunny0x4d02…2ad3 | No | 75 | 80.0¢ | $56 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 40 | 20.0¢ | $10 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 22 | 21.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
These 5 outcomes add up to 110.0¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.