Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 101.2¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 3,148 | 86.7¢ | $2.72K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| MaxVision0x5be9…9106 | Yes | 2,856 | 13.2¢ | $386 |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 657 | 12.2¢ | $89 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 102 | 89.2¢ | $88 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 224 | 12.2¢ | $30 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| 0x7d33…c15f | Yes | 149 | 14.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$4.65 per $100 · 579 bets |
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.