Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 23:26 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 3,141 | 86.7¢ | $2.67K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| MaxVision0x5be9…9106 | Yes | 2,856 | 13.2¢ | $428 | Positive+$9.90 per $100 · 197 bets |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 657 | 12.2¢ | $99 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 102 | 89.2¢ | $87 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 224 | 12.2¢ | $34 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,031 bets |
| 0x7d33…c15f | Yes | 149 | 14.0¢ | $22 | Losing−$4.65 per $100 · 579 bets |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | Yes | 111 | 12.0¢ | $17 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 62 | 19.6¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,445 bets |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 44 | 14.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5 | 86.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | Yes | 26 | 14.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 25 | 15.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | Yes | 16 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 15 | 13.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x377f…e8f9 | No | 2 | 89.1¢ | $2 | Proven+$7.36 per $100 · 217 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 10 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 5 | 14.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 0 | 86.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 2 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 1 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 0 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 0 | 87.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,803 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.