Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 101.2¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 657 | 42.0¢ | $368 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | Yes | 480 | 32.1¢ | $269 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| pogb0xc03f…249d | No | 451 | 55.7¢ | $198 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 224 | 42.9¢ | $125 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 215 | 50.5¢ | $120 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 174 | 56.0¢ | $76 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.