Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 09:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 1,000 | 40.2¢ | $470 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 657 | 42.0¢ | $348 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | Yes | 480 | 32.1¢ | $254 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 224 | 42.9¢ | $119 | Positive+$8.68 per $100 · 128,249 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 215 | 50.5¢ | $114 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,107 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 171 | 59.0¢ | $91 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 31,283 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 120 | 52.0¢ | $64 | — |
| sunnynotbunny0x4d02…2ad3 | Yes | 116 | 31.0¢ | $62 | — |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | Yes | 111 | 42.0¢ | $59 | — |
| Specialist2003030xfad9…f138 | Yes | 107 | 53.1¢ | $57 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 93 | 57.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,761+ bets · updating |
| 0xwordjnn0x0bef…3b06 | No | 66 | 55.0¢ | $31 | Losing−$4.41 per $100 · 690 bets |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 47 | 43.0¢ | $25 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 50 | 43.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 47 | 47.5¢ | $22 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 43 | 57.0¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 32 | 52.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| wreak0x56c8…4975 | Yes | 30 | 52.0¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 30 | 67.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 5,428 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 20 | 58.7¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 15 | 43.3¢ | $8 | — |
| zeitfi-vault-v20x6ae0…b747 | Yes | 6 | 55.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | No | 5 | 58.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.63 per $100 · 2,089 bets |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 5 | 54.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 8,815 bets |
| 0x1a8f…2cd1 | No | 5 | 59.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 637 bets |
| 0x377f…e8f9 | No | 4 | 49.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$7.36 per $100 · 217 bets |
| dully70xdd46…8a23 | No | 4 | 59.0¢ | $2 | — |
| kor-and-m0x0b14…f1f5 | No | 4 | 45.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x336a…9f9a | No | 3 | 59.6¢ | $2 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 1 | 52.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.94 per $100 · 537 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 1 | 45.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| WildManul0x4861…9acf | No | 1 | 67.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.33 per $100 · 2,574 bets |
| intelligence980x6090…6dbb | Yes | 0 | 52.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 0 | 57.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.68 per $100 · 28,611+ bets · updating |
| greedcash0x8ff1…996c | No | 0 | 55.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.