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Topic · Geopolitics
12 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.4% of Polymarket
Events · markets
3 · 12
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
3 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 21 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? | December 31 | 15.5¢ | down 2 points this week | $1.18M |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:18 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| 25-29 |
| 47.5¢ |
| down 5 points this week |
| $10.2K |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12? | <170 | 29.5¢ | – | $991 |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | No on December 31 | $128.7K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 471 bets |
| 657657570x2974…9c23 | No on December 31 | $84.1K | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 376 bets |
| hymolu0x17e3…9ba5 | No on October 31 | $65.4K | New70 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | December 31 | $47.6K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No on October 31 | $45.5K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| DiaMat0x5ff7…f7f0 | No on October 31 | $38.6K | New96 bets |
| megaforest0xe172…e8e0 | No on October 31 | $38.5K | New64 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No on December 31 | $37.5K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| tennisclub0x479d…d469 | No on October 31 | $36.3K | New40 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | No on December 31 | $33.8K | Proven+$4.75 per $100 · 2,288 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.