Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 97.6¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaxVision0x5be9…9106 | No | 1,000 | 83.8¢ | $860 | Positive+$12.04 per $100 · 196 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 410 | 85.0¢ | $353 | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 200 | 83.0¢ | $172 | — |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 662 | 18.1¢ | $93 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 652 | 13.0¢ | $91 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| jollyblue0x74a4…62dd | No | 66 | 84.5¢ | $57 | — |