Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 04:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaxVision0x5be9…9106 | No | 1,000 | 83.8¢ | $920 | Positive+$9.90 per $100 · 197 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 410 | 85.0¢ | $377 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 200 | 83.0¢ | $184 | — |
| jollyblue0x74a4…62dd | No | 66 | 84.5¢ | $61 | — |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 662 | 18.1¢ | $53 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 652 | 13.0¢ | $52 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 47 | 82.0¢ | $43 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 44 | 83.0¢ | $40 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 300 | 17.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 224 | 17.7¢ | $18 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,135 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 221 | 14.5¢ | $18 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,642 bets |
| Fishcup0xd031…f613 | Yes | 167 | 15.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 10 | 84.8¢ | $9 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,932 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 4,881 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 76.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | Yes | 111 | 17.6¢ | $9 | — |
| Specialist2003030xfad9…f138 | Yes | 107 | 9.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 94 | 15.0¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 88 | 7.3¢ | $7 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| yopik0x2d95…6887 | No | 6 | 85.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 50 | 17.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 50 | 17.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 26 | 17.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 13.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 15 | 13.7¢ | $1 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 1 | 82.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 10 | 12.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,990 bets |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | Yes | 3 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.68 per $100 · 28,611+ bets · updating |
| SpreadCtrl0x9dc5…d8b9 | No | 0 | 81.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 18.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.