Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 200 | 87.0¢ | $165 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 95 | 83.0¢ | $78 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 370 | 13.5¢ | $65 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 20 | 84.0¢ | $17 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $4 | — |
| special-one0xbb4b…5667 | Yes | 19 | 13.0¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 5 outcomes add up to 103.0¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.