Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 88.4¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xafaa…3bb4 | Yes | 73 | 29.0¢ | $16 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 17 | 75.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 16 | 75.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Jnf170x802e…db63 | Yes | 45 | 28.1¢ | $10 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 11 | 75.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| etghzcer0x7b89…ddae | Yes | 28 | 30.0¢ | $6 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.