Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 18:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 47 | 64.8¢ | $30 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 125,093 bets |
| 0xafaa…3bb4 | Yes | 73 | 29.0¢ | $26 | — |
| Jnf170x802e…db63 | Yes | 45 | 28.1¢ | $16 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 17 | 75.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 16 | 75.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| etghzcer0x7b89…ddae | Yes | 28 | 30.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Specialist2003030xfad9…f138 | Yes | 20 | 29.4¢ | $7 | — |
| shiifoo0x30f6…004f | Yes | 20 | 24.0¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.80 per $100 · 22,290 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 11 | 75.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$14.60 per $100 · 54,599 bets |
| 0x1b15…96d4 | Yes | 14 | 35.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Carabao0x24bf…b12e | Yes | 6 | 32.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe3a0…5793 | No | 0 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7d88…eab3 | No | 0 | 65.0¢ | $0 | — |
| T222222222220xea7f…b855 | No | 0 | 63.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 63.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.