Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:44 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bonalddrunk0x3089…92f6 | No | 1,111 | 87.1¢ | $1.06K | Losing−$6.74 per $100 · 930 bets |
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 200 | 87.0¢ | $191 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 480 | 11.0¢ | $22 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,132 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 378 | 13.3¢ | $17 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
| yopik0x2d95…6887 | No | 6 | 83.0¢ | $6 | — |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | Yes | 82 | 15.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$7.75 per $100 · 16,321 bets |
| SulkingCrypto0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | 74 | 14.0¢ | $3 | — |
| hfv0xe102…71df | Yes | 61 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| leadernew0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | 56 | 15.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 43 | 14.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$4.13 per $100 · 12,890 bets |
| boofa0xbc42…790f | Yes | 40 | 15.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 32 | 11.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 14.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 30 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 24 | 15.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.67 per $100 · 14,786 bets |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 21 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5f3e…5337 | Yes | 21 | 9.0¢ | $1 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 12.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| T222222222220xea7f…b855 | No | 1 | 97.1¢ | $1 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| streetgy0x0f3a…317f | Yes | 0 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.