October 31

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
3. §3This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
4. §4If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
5. §5Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
6. §6Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
7. §7The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.