December 31

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the US and Iran is mutually signed or adopted by the date, 11:59 PM ET.§2

Both parties sign

The instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran unless formally adopted without signature.§4

Same instrument

Both parties sign the same document, or individual documents substantively indicating acceptance of the same instrument; minor differences allowed.§5

Adoption without signature

If both countries recognize the instrument as not requiring signature, formal adoption without signature qualifies.§7

Later events irrelevant

The condition is met even if the instrument is not implemented, not ratified, repudiated, or withdrawn from later.§29

Counted

A qualifying instrument must establish at least one specific obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program with a concrete, measurable benchmark.§15

Source

Official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran or their authorized representatives; a consensus of credible reporting may also be…§30

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 14.5¢
• November 30 6.5¢
• October 31 1.7¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.