Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:05 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 19 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 475,209 | 86.7¢ | $406K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,049 bets |
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No | 153,704 | 87.7¢ | $131K | Losing−$3.33 per $100 · 265 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | Yes | 278,312 | 9.7¢ | $40.4K | Proven+$7.93 per $100 · 516 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 36,765 | 80.2¢ | $31.4K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No | 33,665 | 83.6¢ | $28.8K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 32,405 | 87.1¢ | $27.7K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 29,989+ bets · updating |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 29,155 | 78.6¢ | $24.9K | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No | 18,251 | 73.5¢ | $15.6K | New16 settled bets |
| shuanyang0x1681…b1c7 | Yes | 86,081 | 18.3¢ | $12.5K | Proven+$2.81 per $100 · 178 bets |
| Specksalam0x80f1…3ccd | No | 10,278 | 87.6¢ | $8.79K | New88 settled bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 9,531 | 80.6¢ | $8.15K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | Yes | 56,175 | 30.5¢ | $8.15K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| 0xce1d…1b9b | Yes | 45,000 | 44.0¢ | $6.52K | Proven+$3.31 per $100 · 268 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 41,140 | 28.9¢ | $5.97K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| sabsabinxz0xd3ec…6603 | No | 6,726 | 90.5¢ | $5.75K | Proven+$23.86 per $100 · 101 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | No | 6,278 | 66.9¢ | $5.37K | Positive+$3.17 per $100 · 158 bets |
| 0x5d2f…5034 | No | 5,634 | 71.4¢ | $4.82K | New12 settled bets |
| Sylvester.the.Cat0x0f2b…665a | No | 5,000 | 89.0¢ | $4.28K | Proven+$7.28 per $100 · 118 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 5,000 | 64.8¢ | $4.27K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
| idkwid0x91b1…cee1 | Yes | 27,036 | 14.0¢ | $3.92K | New49 settled bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 4,489 | 85.7¢ | $3.84K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 4,207 | 86.5¢ | $3.6K | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| tryingmyluckhere0xac9b…d4c5 | Yes | 24,511 | 29.7¢ | $3.55K | Positive+$14.75 per $100 · 560 bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | No | 3,800 | 70.0¢ | $3.25K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| 0xd9f2…fe2f | No | 3,587 | 82.8¢ | $3.07K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 101 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 20,000 | 12.0¢ | $2.9K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | No | 3,200 | 88.1¢ | $2.74K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| 0x0285…96b9 | Yes | 18,208 | 14.6¢ | $2.64K | New21 settled bets |
| Greed.0xd5d7…4952 | Yes | 15,776 | 13.8¢ | $2.29K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 664 bets |
| pup10x54b5…4b31 | Yes | 15,000 | 14.8¢ | $2.18K | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 5,554 bets |
| ioudas0x49d3…3ed1 | No | 2,500 | 77.0¢ | $2.14K | New2 settled bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 2,024 | 65.7¢ | $1.73K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| deltasniper0x0826…0b32 | No | 2,000 | 86.0¢ | $1.71K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 494 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 1,858 | 87.0¢ | $1.59K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| 0x8fe9…d4d8 | Yes | 10,817 | 12.0¢ | $1.57K | New2 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,820 | 87.8¢ | $1.56K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| hy5ppr0x7fd2…9d02 | Yes | 10,582 | 11.0¢ | $1.53K | New3 settled bets |
| tehkai0xa429…368a | No | 1,742 | 87.4¢ | $1.49K | Break-even−$0.75 per $100 · 483 bets |
| ELEZIOR-TV0xd286…2322 | Yes | 9,295 | 25.7¢ | $1.35K | Losing−$14.52 per $100 · 1,809 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 9,000 | 34.0¢ | $1.3K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| johnnyA0x11f3…d859 | No | 1,500 | 89.7¢ | $1.28K | Proven+$2.24 per $100 · 870 bets |
| cripes30x8454…331a | Yes | 8,719 | 24.0¢ | $1.26K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 2,770 bets |
| Diosdadsa0xdf54…ce59 | Yes | 8,400 | 17.5¢ | $1.22K | New18 settled bets |
| y5ny0x8466…4e18 | Yes | 8,358 | 12.0¢ | $1.21K | New2 settled bets |
| 0x4346…b9ee | Yes | 8,333 | 12.0¢ | $1.21K | New1 settled bet |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | Yes | 7,518 | 20.9¢ | $1.09K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| MerhabaKardesim0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | 7,212 | 13.3¢ | $1.05K | Positive+$4.36 per $100 · 1,098 bets |
| Jin-20260x4b30…4b79 | No | 1,199 | 72.7¢ | $1.03K | New91 settled bets |
| Quantollah0x0b9d…8201 | Yes | 7,000 | 10.0¢ | $1.01K | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 287 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 7,000 | 36.4¢ | $1.01K | Proven+$6.18 per $100 · 355 bets |
| Barcide0xd04d…3dda | No | 1,137 | 88.0¢ | $972 | Proven+$4.74 per $100 · 777 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 6,688 | 22.6¢ | $970 | Proven+$5.82 per $100 · 7,338 bets |
| 0x729a…c966 | No | 1,120 | 74.9¢ | $958 | Losing−$3.03 per $100 · 513 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,040 | 86.4¢ | $889 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| AlanYagami-T0xe3d1…d312 | Yes | 6,097 | 12.5¢ | $884 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 151 bets |
| QAQ.0x4cdc…0116 | Yes | 5,902 | 20.6¢ | $856 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 771 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | No | 1,000 | 72.0¢ | $855 | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | No | 1,000 | 72.0¢ | $855 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 1,000 | 55.0¢ | $855 | New96 settled bets |
| M88800x44da…e225 | No | 982 | 90.0¢ | $840 | Proven+$3.17 per $100 · 159 bets |
| 0x2c19…e3c6 | Yes | 5,742 | 11.9¢ | $833 | New16 settled bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 898 | 83.9¢ | $768 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,942 bets |
| Nz20270x2f77…9da4 | Yes | 5,189 | 31.4¢ | $752 | New52 settled bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 850 | 68.1¢ | $727 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| Drunken-Mentat0x588c…1bf4 | Yes | 5,000 | 17.6¢ | $725 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 676 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 4,982 | 19.8¢ | $722 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| 0x2c79…e0aa | No | 800 | 85.0¢ | $684 | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 218 bets |
| 0x598e…9d4f | No | 777 | 64.4¢ | $664 | New95 settled bets |
| dante890x5397…736b | No | 725 | 69.0¢ | $620 | New59 settled bets |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | No | 700 | 84.6¢ | $599 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| Niseko0x801d…d8e0 | Yes | 4,000 | 46.0¢ | $580 | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| 0x8341…de89 | Yes | 4,000 | 10.0¢ | $580 | Positive+$5.77 per $100 · 585 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 647 | 76.2¢ | $553 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| xiaohuli120x436d…6c1d | Yes | 3,556 | 45.0¢ | $516 | New60 settled bets |
| angine0x09b5…8b88 | No | 600 | 69.0¢ | $513 | Proven+$9.07 per $100 · 100 bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 600 | 87.0¢ | $513 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 600 | 86.0¢ | $513 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,397 bets |
| 7urh0x934c…b061 | Yes | 3,518 | 12.0¢ | $510 | New0 settled bets |
| Basque0xfb26…06f7 | No | 580 | 68.9¢ | $496 | New55 settled bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 3,300 | 21.3¢ | $479 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0xcca9…4c9f | Yes | 3,125 | 0.0¢ | $453 | Break-even−$0.50 per $100 · 265 bets |
| 2qZCcUat1aO6J0x1904…e75e | No | 523 | 89.2¢ | $447 | New41 settled bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | Yes | 3,016 | 11.0¢ | $437 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| F00Fi0x12ce…928f | No | 511 | 87.8¢ | $437 | Proven+$4.94 per $100 · 254 bets |
| winnnar0x5daf…63f3 | No | 500 | 85.0¢ | $428 | New51 settled bets |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 500 | 69.8¢ | $428 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 2,900 | 8.9¢ | $420 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| 6mui0x5da1…daba | Yes | 2,665 | 11.3¢ | $386 | New1 settled bet |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 2,573 | 13.0¢ | $373 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| gt4r0x21d4…db6c | Yes | 2,358 | 12.0¢ | $342 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 4,315 bets |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | Yes | 2,328 | 12.9¢ | $337 | Positive+$2.57 per $100 · 549 bets |
| gurrqa0xfdf7…d7a4 | Yes | 2,310 | 10.0¢ | $335 | Losing−$8.03 per $100 · 587 bets |
| 0x6537…5a09 | Yes | 2,200 | 14.0¢ | $319 | New5 settled bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | Yes | 2,170 | 23.0¢ | $315 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| thrbrtg0xd238…38a7 | Yes | 2,075 | 12.0¢ | $301 | New0 settled bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 2,000 | 8.5¢ | $290 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| BetZilla0xc33d…1b02 | Yes | 2,000 | 10.0¢ | $290 | Proven+$7.90 per $100 · 142 bets |
| PROPHET.NOTES0xcb11…0d5e | Yes | 2,000 | 23.0¢ | $290 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 543 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 2,000 | 14.0¢ | $290 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.