Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 13,381 | 95.4¢ | $13.1K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| 18in36out0xa684…a33f | No | 7,774 | 93.4¢ | $7.64K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Vanquish0x4baf…5fdf | No | 7,324 | 94.0¢ | $7.2K | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 286 bets |
| Kris-Future0xa139…6f00 | No | 7,046 | 93.1¢ | $6.92K | New54 settled bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 5,665 | 93.9¢ | $5.57K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 3,640 | 94.2¢ | $3.58K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,963 bets |