Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
11 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 8,521 | 83.0¢ | $7.43K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,390 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 6,835 | 83.7¢ | $5.96K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 18in36out0xa684…a33f | No | 5,000 | 85.0¢ | $4.36K | New28 settled bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 4,638 | 84.5¢ | $4.04K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| l3t00xd14a…a8ad | No | 3,600 | 84.0¢ | $3.14K | Proven+$6.10 per $100 · 109 bets |
| Kris-Future0xa139…6f00 | No | 3,320 | 87.3¢ | $2.89K | New54 settled bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 40 shares each side · Show
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