Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:19 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
11 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 8,521 | 83.0¢ | $7.43K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,390 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 6,835 | 83.7¢ | $5.96K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 18in36out0xa684…a33f | No | 5,000 | 85.0¢ | $4.36K | New28 settled bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 4,638 | 84.5¢ | $4.04K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| l3t00xd14a…a8ad | No | 3,600 | 84.0¢ | $3.14K | Proven+$6.10 per $100 · 109 bets |
| Kris-Future0xa139…6f00 | No | 3,320 | 87.3¢ | $2.9K | New54 settled bets |
| Huludubu0xe738…df65 | No | 2,500 | 85.0¢ | $2.18K | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 1,712 | 77.4¢ | $1.49K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 8,000 | 14.8¢ | $1.02K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| ctesupremo0xff02…f143 | No | 1,116 | 81.3¢ | $973 | — |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 7,000 | 15.6¢ | $896 | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 1,025 | 83.0¢ | $894 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| Levant-Trader0x95e4…10c3 | No | 1,000 | 85.0¢ | $872 | — |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 6,507 | 15.9¢ | $833 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | No | 800 | 85.8¢ | $698 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| 0805260x9ad7…4084 | No | 727 | 88.0¢ | $634 | — |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 702 | 81.8¢ | $612 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| RdogTest0x9908…062c | No | 681 | 87.9¢ | $594 | — |
| nmnr0xcb86…feda | No | 513 | 86.2¢ | $447 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | No | 500 | 85.0¢ | $436 | — |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 2,558 | 15.4¢ | $327 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 2,382 | 10.1¢ | $305 | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | Yes | 2,241 | 15.0¢ | $287 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 2,222 | 13.2¢ | $284 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 2,158 | 16.9¢ | $276 | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| ZhouSir10x9876…1e66 | No | 300 | 86.0¢ | $262 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 213 bets |
| TUKARUL0xd175…46ef | Yes | 1,978 | 15.2¢ | $253 | New24 settled bets |
| 0x515e…ec0d | No | 287 | 86.0¢ | $250 | New79 settled bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 231 | 87.1¢ | $202 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | 200 | 84.5¢ | $174 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 990 bets |
| Mirotadze0xb462…fc89 | No | 200 | 88.0¢ | $174 | — |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 180 | 70.0¢ | $157 | — |
| kerob0x6214…20d1 | No | 169 | 83.0¢ | $147 | New71 settled bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Yes | 1,133 | 13.0¢ | $145 | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 164 | 82.0¢ | $143 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| vortl0xef9f…8924 | Yes | 1,114 | 11.0¢ | $143 | Positive+$3.42 per $100 · 564 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 1,087 | 17.1¢ | $139 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| 0x6ead…14f8 | No | 149 | 67.0¢ | $130 | — |
| BetZilla0xc33d…1b02 | Yes | 1,000 | 17.0¢ | $128 | Proven+$7.90 per $100 · 142 bets |
| ythyu0xcb68…37ef | Yes | 970 | 16.1¢ | $124 | — |
| antikatar0xe668…7a6b | No | 112 | 89.0¢ | $98 | — |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 100 | 89.0¢ | $87 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| 0xc440…28b2 | No | 100 | 84.0¢ | $87 | — |
| noib0x187f…5fee | Yes | 624 | 13.3¢ | $80 | Positive+$5.43 per $100 · 215 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 561 | 10.9¢ | $72 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 500 | 17.0¢ | $64 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | No | 66 | 84.0¢ | $58 | — |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6 | Yes | 449 | 17.1¢ | $57 | — |
| 0x34dc…d280 | No | 60 | 84.0¢ | $52 | — |
| JoeBevis0x105b…afa2 | No | 57 | 87.0¢ | $50 | — |
| dpnd0x5f21…b376 | Yes | 358 | 28.9¢ | $46 | Positive+$6.67 per $100 · 30,008+ bets · updating |
| jiudubishu0x4e52…44e7 | No | 50 | 87.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$4.23 per $100 · 489 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 50 | 64.0¢ | $44 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| Septen0x4405…6a37 | Yes | 333 | 15.0¢ | $43 | Positive+$1.22 per $100 · 166 bets |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | Yes | 279 | 12.1¢ | $36 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,625 bets |
| ccu3690x9f10…6d4d | No | 37 | 82.0¢ | $32 | — |
| Saulius10xc130…d7f1 | No | 36 | 84.0¢ | $31 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 228 | 12.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | Yes | 215 | 17.0¢ | $28 | New32 settled bets |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | No | 30 | 84.7¢ | $26 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | No | 30 | 87.8¢ | $26 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| 0xccea…9e77 | No | 27 | 73.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x40fe…3bfd | No | 25 | 84.0¢ | $21 | — |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 24 | 83.0¢ | $21 | — |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 164 | 18.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 216 bets |
| Frost000xb51e…0bd5 | No | 23 | 86.0¢ | $20 | — |
| wagdab0x4c5c…685d | No | 22 | 85.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 150 | 14.7¢ | $19 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| WaterFloww0x5040…96cf | Yes | 150 | 14.3¢ | $19 | — |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | No | 20 | 64.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Bokich0x378d…a852 | No | 19 | 82.0¢ | $17 | — |
| rg4gsdge60x7c09…86cf | No | 18 | 85.0¢ | $15 | — |
| criollo20xc0b9…4fa7 | Yes | 117 | 24.0¢ | $15 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 117 | 16.5¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| 0xe8f7…7ead | Yes | 113 | 13.1¢ | $15 | — |
| goldfinch-cz0xd7a4…8229 | Yes | 111 | 18.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xd324…b23c | Yes | 106 | 16.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | Yes | 100 | 16.0¢ | $13 | — |
| GDFFDD0xbdb8…344b | Yes | 100 | 12.0¢ | $13 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 86 | 13.4¢ | $11 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 85 | 13.5¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 12 | 86.4¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| TruthSignalFramework0x7e64…c43e | Yes | 79 | 19.0¢ | $10 | — |
| tuhkjqlwtjilqjkw0xd3e5…17ee | Yes | 70 | 17.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Notmyprediction6660x2dce…5bb6 | Yes | 63 | 16.0¢ | $8 | — |
| PcMYjCcPrd5yb35I0xb4e5…b668 | Yes | 56 | 14.7¢ | $7 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | Yes | 50 | 15.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 13.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 50 | 18.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| ygaltberg0x6f1e…5d4c | Yes | 50 | 18.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 48 | 13.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | Yes | 42 | 16.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| 0xf9b5…1212 | Yes | 39 | 15.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 39 | 16.2¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 37 | 12.2¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 34 | 30.0¢ | $4 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 40 shares each side · Show
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