Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 13,381 | 95.4¢ | $13.1K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| 18in36out0xa684…a33f | No | 7,774 | 93.4¢ | $7.63K | New28 settled bets |
| Vanquish0x4baf…5fdf | No | 7,324 | 94.0¢ | $7.19K | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 286 bets |
| Kris-Future0xa139…6f00 | No | 7,046 | 93.1¢ | $6.92K | New54 settled bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 5,665 | 93.9¢ | $5.56K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 3,640 | 94.2¢ | $3.57K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,965 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 2,629 | 88.2¢ | $2.58K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 2,178 | 92.7¢ | $2.14K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| Huludubu0xe738…df65 | No | 2,000 | 94.0¢ | $1.96K | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 1,971 | 91.5¢ | $1.94K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 1,321 | 92.5¢ | $1.3K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| 0x34dc…d280 | No | 851 | 94.0¢ | $836 | — |
| Timolol450xca12…e855 | No | 847 | 94.5¢ | $831 | — |
| SuAlteza0x1c86…c427 | No | 800 | 93.1¢ | $786 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 819 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 662 | 93.0¢ | $650 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| ctesupremo0xff02…f143 | No | 530 | 94.0¢ | $520 | — |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 500 | 98.2¢ | $491 | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 500 | 89.0¢ | $491 | — |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | No | 481 | 97.7¢ | $472 | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| Hmdj0xfab1…1bae | No | 372 | 94.0¢ | $366 | — |
| Jjw0xb1a1…d308 | No | 321 | 95.0¢ | $315 | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 2,249 bets |
| 0x0a3c…0511 | No | 308 | 95.0¢ | $302 | New56 settled bets |
| Pmxg0xba9b…e0e0 | No | 280 | 93.0¢ | $275 | — |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | Yes | 15,000 | 6.4¢ | $270 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 264 | 97.7¢ | $259 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| Bronzi0xc5fa…9795 | No | 211 | 95.0¢ | $207 | — |
| sepideh21100x23d4…7c71 | No | 202 | 93.0¢ | $199 | — |
| 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $196 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 990 bets |
| ZhouSir10x9876…1e66 | No | 200 | 93.0¢ | $196 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 213 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 10,202 | 6.7¢ | $184 | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| 0xc440…28b2 | No | 178 | 94.6¢ | $174 | — |
| 0x7361…20f4 | No | 163 | 92.0¢ | $160 | — |
| jefflllyyy0x7fad…1cdd | No | 141 | 92.0¢ | $139 | Losing−$1.84 per $100 · 422 bets |
| vortl0xef9f…8924 | Yes | 7,527 | 6.4¢ | $135 | Positive+$3.42 per $100 · 564 bets |
| M20F070x4efa…02a8 | No | 136 | 92.0¢ | $133 | — |
| Enypan0x84a2…3cc1 | No | 128 | 94.0¢ | $125 | — |
| Wilsons0x8c50…ec9e | No | 123 | 98.0¢ | $121 | — |
| Kk91388218060xaa05…e853 | No | 122 | 94.0¢ | $120 | — |
| gh6y0omxinx80x0d83…8eb4 | No | 119 | 98.7¢ | $116 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 1,570 bets |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv0x57b0…76f4 | Yes | 6,025 | 3.0¢ | $108 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| SickandTired0x290d…dc40 | No | 108 | 93.0¢ | $106 | Break-even−$0.40 per $100 · 1,218 bets |
| data-sync0x21ad…10d2 | No | 106 | 94.0¢ | $104 | New43 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 105 | 94.4¢ | $103 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| Bqhudy0x4cb8…c276 | No | 103 | 98.0¢ | $101 | — |
| AJK20x014e…3794 | No | 102 | 98.5¢ | $100 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 263 bets |
| VechnoMolodoyy0xa3f6…1326 | No | 100 | 95.0¢ | $98 | — |
| Mirotadze0xb462…fc89 | No | 100 | 96.0¢ | $98 | — |
| AVANTA0xaa40…9fb9 | No | 100 | 98.0¢ | $98 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | No | 100 | 94.0¢ | $98 | — |
| Hunterfox0x29d7…6d0f | No | 98 | 97.9¢ | $96 | — |
| TUKARUL0xd175…46ef | Yes | 4,974 | 6.7¢ | $90 | New24 settled bets |
| Rezaahmadiii0xfe69…4dca | No | 90 | 93.0¢ | $89 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 4,606 | 7.6¢ | $83 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Patrick26880x525c…af54 | No | 75 | 97.9¢ | $73 | Break-even+$0.89 per $100 · 162 bets |
| Halfa-Beta0x0878…7b50 | No | 67 | 94.9¢ | $66 | — |
| Thetiger0x3c88…13ad | No | 64 | 98.1¢ | $63 | Break-even+$0.90 per $100 · 166 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 3,383 | 6.4¢ | $61 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| BrightStars0xc84f…e0c5 | Yes | 2,413 | 6.0¢ | $43 | Proven+$3.33 per $100 · 325 bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Yes | 2,140 | 6.0¢ | $39 | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 2,000 | 8.0¢ | $36 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,183 | 12.0¢ | $21 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| CDReves0x3bf2…70a4 | Yes | 805 | 6.1¢ | $14 | — |
| doubleone20xff91…ab3a | Yes | 787 | 1.8¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 833 bets |
| Fdavid0x8471…db7d | Yes | 748 | 2.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$10.47 per $100 · 347 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 700 | 8.4¢ | $13 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| ythyu0xcb68…37ef | Yes | 694 | 7.6¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x7ca0…212a | Yes | 600 | 6.0¢ | $11 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 542 | 3.7¢ | $10 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 530 | 8.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 276 | 6.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,391 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 200 | 5.5¢ | $4 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| fantastic550xd75a…fdec | Yes | 177 | 7.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.94 per $100 · 258 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 160 | 1.5¢ | $3 | — |
| ushff0x4713…5446 | Yes | 76 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 72 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| tuhkjqlwtjilqjkw0xd3e5…17ee | Yes | 71 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ioptun500xacff…8429 | Yes | 68 | 3.9¢ | $1 | — |
| commryz0xfa21…50eb | Yes | 67 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | 62 | 6.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.06 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| happut20xb0de…675f | Yes | 56 | 3.8¢ | $1 | — |
| suffecl0xa696…e4c9 | Yes | 52 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 50 | 5.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0x9afc…314b | Yes | 30 | 2.4¢ | $1 | — |
| sgfhtfuh0x170e…f387 | Yes | 25 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| jyjukiy0x111a…9c6a | Yes | 25 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fsgtfhjs0x13be…4e8a | Yes | 25 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dbfghnfjj0xad28…e4b7 | Yes | 25 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| yjyjdqw0x1b97…8885 | Yes | 24 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rgetyu0x6656…264a | Yes | 23 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| defsfg0x39b5…4e2c | Yes | 23 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sfsdgs0xc060…dd5a | Yes | 23 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdgsdd520x2f10…8171 | Yes | 23 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 23 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| sert4wd0xb1b3…2439 | Yes | 23 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dsgsdga0x33a4…302d | Yes | 22 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sfgthyjb0xed28…85fb | Yes | 22 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hyjjg0xf6ea…522b | Yes | 21 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| gthyjft0x6e7d…fb62 | Yes | 20 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd1a6…89db | Yes | 20 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
| adefeg0xb53f…e4d3 | Yes | 20 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.