Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz at or above 60 for any date from market…§1

No data by deadline

If no data for the final date is published within 14 calendar days (ET) after the period ends, the market resolves on data published up to that point.§6

Revisions within timeframe

Revisions to previously published data points made within the market's timeframe are considered, and do not disqualify a previously published data point.§7

Revisions after deadline

Revisions to previously published data points made after data is published for December 31, 2026 are not considered.§9

Data integrity issues

For obvious data integrity issues, the market may stay open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the data is first released.§10

Counted

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships; ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are not considered.§3

Source

IMF Portwatch, specifically transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at the portwatch.imf.org link, in the chart and downloadable files.§12

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.