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Topic · Geopolitics
465 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
10.0% of Polymarket
Events · markets
120 · 465
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Proven traders lean No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 · 1 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $802.6K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:16 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 |
| $790.1K |
| Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No on December 31 | $681.9K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $367.8K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 435 bets |
| scout0x2d99…4ca3 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $321.3K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 1,012 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | $317.6K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $269.5K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $224.2K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No on October 31 | $212.5K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $208.8K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No on December 31 | $187.6K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| TeamA0x9ba9…3ce9 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $179.0K | New1 settled bet |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $177.2K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,956 bets |
| TheQuietRisk0x0a85…fe9d | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $174.3K | Proven+$22.32 per $100 · 109 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | $168.9K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $166.6K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| xm390x696d…f89d | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $166.3K | Losing−$72.09 per $100 · 110 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $165.5K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| 0xe639…082a | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $155.4K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 299 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $144.0K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| 0xff1e…5e2d | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $143.4K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 639 bets |
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No on December 31 | $141.3K | Losing−$3.33 per $100 · 265 bets |
| SecondWindCapital0x8c80…02c3 | U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $135.2K | New79 bets |
| 0xad96…d498 | No on U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | $129.2K | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 101 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No on Iranian regime fall before 2027 | $121.7K | Proven+$7.88 per $100 · 526 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.