Market

December 31

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:30 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Chance of Yes

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

3 proven traders are on Yes, 19 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
denizz0xbaa2…2c73	No	160,897	85.0¢	$155K	Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets
keribit0xc9dc…9026	No	60,000	93.9¢	$58K	Proven

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: The market resolves "Yes" if Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.§1
Airspace or waters: Entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the market timeframe has no bearing on a positive resolution.§4
Definition of visit: A visit means Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran.§3
No visit: Otherwise, the market resolves to "No".§2
Counted: A visit, defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran.§3
Source: A consensus of credible reporting.§5
Closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:30 UTC. Not financial advice.