Market
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:57 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 19 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No | 160,897 | 85.0¢ | $155K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| keribit0xc9dc…9026 | No | 60,000 | 93.9¢ | $58K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 496 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 52,120 | 94.2¢ | $50.3K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| kevtp0xdc4b…dbca | No | 38,503 | 91.8¢ | $37.2K | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 346 bets |
| josearval0xdef6…f69a | No | 35,000 | 89.0¢ | $33.8K | New27 settled bets |
| 0xb121…b73c | No | 23,972 | 93.7¢ | $23.2K | New38 settled bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 20,000 | 94.0¢ | $19.3K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | No | 15,000 | 94.0¢ | $14.5K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 13,332 | 77.6¢ | $12.9K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | No | 12,000 | 93.8¢ | $11.6K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No | 8,466 | 92.0¢ | $8.18K | Losing−$3.36 per $100 · 266 bets |
| BlindAndDeaf0x40a6…133c | No | 8,421 | 95.0¢ | $8.13K | New39 settled bets |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 7,808 | 92.1¢ | $7.54K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| arii0x3a32…562e | No | 6,883 | 78.6¢ | $6.65K | Losing−$8.97 per $100 · 256 bets |
| Vvv0x4cd4…5b25 | No | 5,435 | 92.0¢ | $5.25K | New50 settled bets |
| Bromley860x0b65…293e | No | 5,000 | 94.4¢ | $4.83K | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,095 bets |
| Marco-Rubio0xd67b…5780 | No | 5,000 | 82.6¢ | $4.83K | Proven+$5.68 per $100 · 1,354 bets |
| 47513460x6dd6…f5f4 | No | 4,750 | 93.7¢ | $4.59K | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 3,383 bets |
| CP-directional0x07e1…27af | No | 4,526 | 95.1¢ | $4.37K | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 141 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 4,296 | 79.2¢ | $4.15K | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| Moneymovesmaster0xbf44…4d45 | No | 4,221 | 75.9¢ | $4.08K | New89 settled bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 4,000 | 93.4¢ | $3.86K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| 0x485a…21cb | Yes | 106,521 | 7.5¢ | $3.62K | New55 settled bets |
| Paul9739730xa108…abd3 | No | 3,158 | 95.0¢ | $3.05K | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| Noooooooop0xc315…fe18 | No | 3,131 | 88.8¢ | $3.02K | Break-even−$0.05 per $100 · 508 bets |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | No | 3,042 | 73.0¢ | $2.94K | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| ThePortrait0x002d…2561 | No | 3,000 | 74.0¢ | $2.9K | Proven+$3.45 per $100 · 1,594 bets |
| MoD0x2426…d3e5 | No | 3,000 | 73.0¢ | $2.9K | New74 settled bets |
| Love.always.wins.over.hatred.and.envy0x8642…68d9 | No | 2,664 | 85.7¢ | $2.57K | Losing−$6.19 per $100 · 177 bets |
| 0x095d…52cf | No | 2,580 | 82.7¢ | $2.49K | Losing−$2.80 per $100 · 676 bets |
| 0xe42b…8444 | Yes | 71,166 | 16.5¢ | $2.42K | New6 settled bets |
| patientman0x6a3b…c0e0 | No | 2,500 | 94.6¢ | $2.42K | New26 settled bets |
| SmakAfriki0x11de…21d7 | No | 2,000 | 95.0¢ | $1.93K | Proven+$3.93 per $100 · 198 bets |
| studmuffin69690xa8af…325e | No | 2,000 | 91.0¢ | $1.93K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 2,247 bets |
| QuarterlyComeback0x5a22…17a6 | No | 1,875 | 91.6¢ | $1.81K | Proven+$7.93 per $100 · 468 bets |
| TheGreekTraderPM0x6770…45fb | No | 1,825 | 95.5¢ | $1.76K | Proven+$6.45 per $100 · 941 bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | No | 1,700 | 84.0¢ | $1.64K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| Roflan-ludoman0xfcf2…a469 | No | 1,685 | 61.6¢ | $1.63K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 1,478 bets |
| 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | 1,522 | 88.8¢ | $1.47K | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 990 bets |
| 0xf724…85cc | Yes | 42,487 | 6.4¢ | $1.44K | New21 settled bets |
| 0x9b71…0a0d | No | 1,423 | 74.0¢ | $1.38K | New20 settled bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 1,422 | 65.9¢ | $1.37K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 528 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 39,512 | 6.0¢ | $1.34K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| 0x0b30…54f9 | Yes | 39,468 | 31.7¢ | $1.34K | New13 settled bets |
| AztecaBull0x1062…aea5 | No | 1,246 | 80.1¢ | $1.2K | New57 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,240 | 93.2¢ | $1.2K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| BamseOgKylling0xd9e7…4cde | No | 1,200 | 93.0¢ | $1.16K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 195 bets |
| ooops0xcb14…5358 | No | 1,200 | 67.7¢ | $1.16K | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 7,272 bets |
| tradervader0xd7e6…4f99 | No | 1,198 | 94.0¢ | $1.16K | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 169 bets |
| KingZeManel0x7bff…7cd6 | No | 1,125 | 94.3¢ | $1.09K | Break-even−$0.05 per $100 · 11,534 bets |
| insidero0x3eae…5e6d | No | 1,115 | 90.2¢ | $1.08K | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 514 bets |
| GonTanaka20x5e67…77ad | No | 1,103 | 90.6¢ | $1.07K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 520 bets |
| 0x91c7…b576 | No | 1,079 | 95.1¢ | $1.04K | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 584 bets |
| 0x8931…a90c | No | 1,053 | 94.0¢ | $1.02K | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 611 bets |
| Owjgejliw0xc1d0…529c | Yes | 22,356 | 14.7¢ | $760 | Losing−$32.82 per $100 · 156 bets |
| 0x6992…6c1d | Yes | 17,399 | 5.3¢ | $592 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 670 bets |
| Polly670x364f…1515 | Yes | 15,507 | 10.1¢ | $527 | Losing−$25.47 per $100 · 122 bets |
| baran-ludoman0xc0bf…2032 | Yes | 15,316 | 23.4¢ | $521 | Proven+$11.48 per $100 · 198 bets |
| frenswillmakeit0x0791…d81f | Yes | 13,926 | 25.1¢ | $473 | Positive+$36.71 per $100 · 108 bets |
| goldeye0x705d…3438 | Yes | 13,621 | 34.3¢ | $463 | Losing−$26.93 per $100 · 249 bets |
| Prince-of-Persia0xd5ac…9048 | Yes | 13,131 | 5.1¢ | $446 | New37 settled bets |
| shfa0x6c5c…1e71 | Yes | 10,417 | 30.9¢ | $354 | New18 settled bets |
| 0xca1c…fb26 | Yes | 9,688 | 30.4¢ | $329 | New5 settled bets |
| LIONANDSUN0x3e54…6740 | Yes | 9,671 | 27.5¢ | $329 | Losing−$13.33 per $100 · 431 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 8,594 | 6.0¢ | $292 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| bluecable0xe286…bb11 | Yes | 8,163 | 29.9¢ | $278 | New6 settled bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 7,950 | 20.5¢ | $270 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| Bradking0x35fe…8509 | Yes | 7,265 | 15.1¢ | $247 | New51 settled bets |
| 0x5ca7…8195 | Yes | 6,500 | 5.8¢ | $221 | Losing−$12.43 per $100 · 768 bets |
| 0x74cd…67fe | Yes | 6,223 | 16.3¢ | $212 | New20 settled bets |
| 0x5576…5bf1 | Yes | 6,117 | 31.1¢ | $208 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x3131…b77b | Yes | 6,100 | 15.5¢ | $207 | New11 settled bets |
| 0x0a3e…8745 | Yes | 5,886 | 17.0¢ | $200 | New13 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 5,813 | 25.2¢ | $198 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| Jgborn0xc1b7…e00b | Yes | 4,907 | 50.9¢ | $167 | New15 settled bets |
| RealRonnieTyler0x89c2…7ce4 | Yes | 4,623 | 4.5¢ | $157 | New99 settled bets |
| 0x071b…d08d | Yes | 3,260 | 44.1¢ | $111 | New8 settled bets |
| idea.0x7dcb…cbfd | Yes | 3,152 | 21.9¢ | $107 | New4 settled bets |
| Po1yBot-H4KRu0bwR70xa3d8…63c7 | Yes | 2,912 | 17.0¢ | $99 | New1 settled bet |
| final-divination0x9ea7…7e1c | Yes | 2,892 | 34.6¢ | $98 | New22 settled bets |
| gamechanger20260x0eed…6491 | Yes | 2,814 | 35.5¢ | $96 | New2 settled bets |
| johnnyA0x11f3…d859 | Yes | 2,500 | 6.4¢ | $85 | Proven+$2.24 per $100 · 870 bets |
| 0x9dd9…08bd | Yes | 2,217 | 36.8¢ | $75 | Losing−$5.13 per $100 · 30,404+ bets · updating |
| 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96040x8a98…1b92 | Yes | 2,000 | 13.0¢ | $68 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 1,882 bets |
| Underdarkus0xd03c…68cf | Yes | 1,529 | 14.0¢ | $52 | Losing−$5.26 per $100 · 106 bets |
| ChuckChuckChuck0x497a…5342 | Yes | 1,493 | 27.0¢ | $51 | New0 settled bets |
| Dtav0xf66b…f9db | Yes | 1,464 | 19.4¢ | $50 | New22 settled bets |
| negginmtmd0xbb6e…173b | Yes | 1,427 | 7.0¢ | $49 | New5 settled bets |
| 0xb1b8…465a | Yes | 1,390 | 36.0¢ | $47 | New28 settled bets |
| Jsmiler0x7f4e…2e3e | Yes | 1,382 | 16.0¢ | $47 | New27 settled bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 1,255 | 24.3¢ | $43 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| Xendo10x9078…26af | Yes | 1,200 | 25.0¢ | $41 | Proven+$14.04 per $100 · 191 bets |
| viqk0x29ea…701e | Yes | 1,141 | 8.5¢ | $39 | Losing−$74.83 per $100 · 605 bets |
| 0xd0bc…f5b7 | Yes | 1,138 | 14.5¢ | $39 | New32 settled bets |
| xj25930xbd94…8ac0 | Yes | 1,118 | 17.0¢ | $38 | New10 settled bets |
| Bertastan0x0d3f…de34 | Yes | 1,116 | 36.1¢ | $38 | New80 settled bets |
| pinicohen0x0fb5…4c04 | Yes | 1,000 | 3.6¢ | $34 | — |
| mx1560x8a1e…bd03 | Yes | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$8.29 per $100 · 352 bets |
| jjams0x49b0…efd5 | Yes | 909 | 11.0¢ | $31 | New10 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.