Market
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pershin0xbfd0…616b | No | 45,304 | 87.0¢ | $44.1K | — |
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No | 42,125 | 90.6¢ | $41.1K | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b |
| No |
| 12,061 |
| 95.9¢ |
| $11.8K |
| Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,257 bets |
| insidero0x3eae…5e6d | No | 10,408 | 92.5¢ | $10.1K | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 514 bets |
| bear-bees0x9d54…c43d | No | 8,869 | 94.8¢ | $8.64K | New47 settled bets |
| MajoriT0x8c76…06ac | No | 8,472 | 83.2¢ | $8.26K | Losing−$1.69 per $100 · 470 bets |