Market
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pershin0xbfd0…616b | No | 45,304 | 87.0¢ | $44.1K | — |
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No | 42,125 | 90.6¢ | $41K | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 12,061 | 95.9¢ | $11.7K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,267 bets |
| insidero0x3eae…5e6d | No | 10,408 | 92.5¢ | $10.1K | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 514 bets |
| bear-bees0x9d54…c43d | No | 8,869 | 94.8¢ | $8.64K | New47 settled bets |
| MajoriT0x8c76…06ac | No | 8,472 | 83.2¢ | $8.25K | Losing−$1.69 per $100 · 470 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 5,000 | 91.0¢ | $4.87K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| Noooooooop0xc315…fe18 | No | 4,500 | 93.6¢ | $4.38K | Break-even−$0.05 per $100 · 508 bets |
| nashen0xefab…b927 | No | 3,000 | 85.0¢ | $2.92K | — |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 2,427 | 90.4¢ | $2.36K | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 4,098 bets |
| Krass0x581d…b2e3 | No | 2,400 | 86.9¢ | $2.34K | Proven+$4.65 per $100 · 885 bets |
| wish-0x72a2…7b65 | No | 2,251 | 95.2¢ | $2.19K | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 1,975 bets |
| 0x1120…5efa | No | 2,174 | 92.0¢ | $2.12K | — |
| Slowroasted0xc30c…6509 | No | 2,159 | 95.2¢ | $2.1K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 5,633 bets |
| 0xdafd…5ffb | No | 2,050 | 93.3¢ | $2K | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 306 bets |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | No | 2,047 | 92.4¢ | $1.99K | — |
| nofreemoney260x8a1c…65da | No | 2,000 | 91.5¢ | $1.95K | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,897 | 95.5¢ | $1.85K | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,057 bets |
| deTka0x4035…91aa | No | 1,769 | 89.6¢ | $1.72K | New21 settled bets |
| 0xd628…43c1 | Yes | 58,803 | 16.9¢ | $1.53K | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 1,000 | 96.1¢ | $974 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| depeer0x5567…aeed | No | 901 | 91.3¢ | $877 | — |
| .AnA.luz0xfa03…c6c4 | No | 900 | 91.0¢ | $877 | — |
| mmm1234.12340x1804…bd47 | No | 872 | 91.0¢ | $849 | — |
| VortexTrading0x41c7…0df5 | No | 850 | 92.9¢ | $828 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 5,248 bets |
| 0xc4a7…898a | No | 819 | 93.9¢ | $798 | — |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | No | 623 | 91.0¢ | $607 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| lisa670x5768…08fd | No | 540 | 93.0¢ | $526 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 158 bets |
| Roht0x4fc1…ec92 | No | 500 | 95.0¢ | $487 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 8,836 bets |
| Michael52890x3c76…d4ee | No | 500 | 82.0¢ | $487 | — |
| quickrat0x4ed5…0d49 | No | 500 | 95.1¢ | $487 | — |
| 0x77c7…7a05 | No | 500 | 93.0¢ | $487 | New67 settled bets |
| 0xd054…7e38 | No | 500 | 92.0¢ | $487 | — |
| draker0x3ddd…722d | No | 462 | 90.0¢ | $450 | — |
| blyagha0xb8e0…0fed | No | 457 | 91.0¢ | $446 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 456 | 91.8¢ | $444 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| Marooski0xe45a…95eb | No | 429 | 93.0¢ | $418 | — |
| 0x9812…644f | Yes | 14,286 | 7.0¢ | $371 | New82 settled bets |
| 0x351d…0ebe | No | 334 | 89.9¢ | $325 | — |
| risk.reward0x210c…2eda | No | 309 | 88.6¢ | $301 | — |
| shaltury0xe268…2fea | No | 300 | 90.0¢ | $292 | — |
| tywed0xc8e3…6fb0 | No | 300 | 87.0¢ | $292 | — |
| 0x3ac4…0e8b | Yes | 10,000 | 10.0¢ | $260 | New47 settled bets |
| Cant0x56be…8cff | No | 263 | 92.0¢ | $256 | — |
| CANCEL0xf526…35b1 | No | 250 | 92.0¢ | $244 | — |
| 0x1240…1468 | Yes | 9,083 | 12.1¢ | $236 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 241 | 96.1¢ | $235 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x275c…6090 | No | 236 | 94.0¢ | $230 | — |
| Donkov0xbc54…680f | No | 232 | 96.9¢ | $226 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 1,980 bets |
| aleksandrshtefanov0xb91a…29dd | No | 220 | 91.0¢ | $214 | — |
| SVOI0xbdf7…65d9 | No | 211 | 95.0¢ | $205 | — |
| ZAMPELA0xb8a5…94b7 | No | 206 | 93.0¢ | $201 | — |
| notworthit0x1b3f…b538 | No | 200 | 94.7¢ | $195 | New21 settled bets |
| Petavejlupek0x1401…9b4d | No | 200 | 96.5¢ | $195 | — |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | Yes | 6,241 | 3.9¢ | $162 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| 0x6bd3…3e23 | Yes | 6,009 | 4.1¢ | $156 | New13 settled bets |
| DemoKratic0x0e40…f622 | Yes | 5,584 | 7.2¢ | $145 | Losing−$12.20 per $100 · 183 bets |
| 0xd11c…e38a | Yes | 4,813 | 8.3¢ | $125 | — |
| gaugeinvariance0x17a2…ba19 | Yes | 3,572 | 14.0¢ | $93 | — |
| gatorr0x93ab…9723 | Yes | 3,500 | 12.0¢ | $91 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 937 bets |
| UpTight0xc19d…865e | Yes | 3,500 | 6.2¢ | $91 | — |
| 0xe172…248a | Yes | 2,955 | 8.1¢ | $77 | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 113 bets |
| DomaDevil0x4d9e…e3c8 | Yes | 2,180 | 3.2¢ | $57 | — |
| 0xb9e9…e211 | Yes | 2,000 | 10.0¢ | $52 | New18 settled bets |
| matejbets0x8811…5cf4 | Yes | 2,000 | 5.0¢ | $52 | — |
| dyffe0x5d37…b918 | Yes | 1,769 | 11.0¢ | $46 | — |
| 0x1151…c9ab | Yes | 1,572 | 8.0¢ | $41 | — |
| avidadeumamao0xc482…f0be | Yes | 1,563 | 3.2¢ | $41 | — |
| stygimoloch0x0724…3238 | Yes | 1,556 | 9.6¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x5b49…5781 | Yes | 1,250 | 8.0¢ | $33 | — |
| ligmaaaaa0x682e…70bd | Yes | 1,186 | 8.4¢ | $31 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 1,171 | 3.2¢ | $30 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| 0xa28c…78d2 | Yes | 1,111 | 9.0¢ | $29 | — |
| 0x9e85…7fba | Yes | 1,105 | 9.0¢ | $29 | — |
| Pol380x97cf…6500 | Yes | 1,013 | 14.8¢ | $26 | — |
| Wagmi4200x3d14…ee01 | Yes | 1,000 | 6.0¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x368a…c847 | Yes | 938 | 3.2¢ | $24 | — |
| HughJackman0x6ef6…92e4 | Yes | 833 | 6.0¢ | $22 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 800 | 1.3¢ | $21 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xab22…09ae | Yes | 796 | 10.0¢ | $21 | — |
| for-the-lulz0x61e2…4958 | Yes | 787 | 5.2¢ | $20 | Losing−$97.69 per $100 · 135 bets |
| Ruxpin840x2f91…f6ff | Yes | 756 | 7.8¢ | $20 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 755 | 4.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$7.52 per $100 · 293,648+ bets · updating |
| 0x9889…f3c8 | Yes | 705 | 7.0¢ | $18 | — |
| betsalel3580x51c1…9771 | Yes | 690 | 5.4¢ | $18 | — |
| 0x7a10…94bc | Yes | 667 | 6.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Sergio22190x4314…c3b6 | Yes | 606 | 3.3¢ | $16 | — |
| sviatoshi0x04ab…af23 | Yes | 556 | 9.0¢ | $14 | — |
| xlefgerx0x94e4…534a | Yes | 517 | 11.8¢ | $13 | Positive+$12.65 per $100 · 450 bets |
| 0x45bd…af96 | Yes | 516 | 5.2¢ | $13 | — |
| DtotheJ0x6f39…8ad7 | Yes | 500 | 12.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$39.91 per $100 · 209 bets |
| 0xbdce…5112 | Yes | 500 | 7.0¢ | $13 | — |
| pray7270xfddf…6238 | Yes | 455 | 11.0¢ | $12 | — |
| MAHMT0x4e23…d084 | Yes | 451 | 4.0¢ | $12 | New40 settled bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 450 | 18.0¢ | $12 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| Mishanya190xa83a…34d6 | Yes | 430 | 11.6¢ | $11 | — |
| Guthix4810x18da…91c4 | Yes | 429 | 5.1¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xa9ac…4a21 | Yes | 417 | 12.0¢ | $11 | — |
| tacowaco0x8be8…23aa | Yes | 415 | 12.0¢ | $11 | — |
| AdamPohh0x5681…43c1 | Yes | 364 | 11.0¢ | $9 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.