Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
Russia Invades Another Country · 2 events · $278K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 684 | 87.7¢ | $575 | — |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | No | 175 | 74.0¢ | $147 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 120 | 86.5¢ | $101 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 13,909 bets |
| Dragaris0x15fb…e8fd | Yes | 253 | 15.8¢ | $40 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 217 | 18.2¢ | $35 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| Bperil0xc624…ee24 | No | 40 | 87.0¢ | $34 | Proven+$3.56 per $100 · 1,974 bets |
| 0x91c7…b576 | No | 40 | 84.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 584 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 156 | 11.0¢ | $25 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 135 | 10.0¢ | $22 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Gaujmalietis0xd883…4fd7 | No | 20 | 83.5¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,573 bets |
| 0xb5af…0065 | Yes | 71 | 16.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Mr-guess0x140e…ea2f | Yes | 59 | 16.9¢ | $9 | — |
| Phenium0xe9f2…ddd0 | Yes | 56 | 15.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 623 bets |
| 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | 11 | 82.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 199 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 40 | 22.3¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,453 bets |
| pollution0x4574…ab3e | No | 6 | 83.0¢ | $5 | — |
| MakRos0xc554…268c | Yes | 29 | 17.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 27.0¢ | $3 | — |
| DidYKH0xd16b…36c0 | Yes | 17 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 16 | 24.5¢ | $3 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | Yes | 11 | 15.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x9d0f…b500 | Yes | 7 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9ea3…e379 | No | 1 | 85.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9b6f…0fcc | Yes | 6 | 17.1¢ | $1 | — |
| HosoTrader0x5ad9…f29d | No | 1 | 71.0¢ | $1 | — |
| artand0xd3cd…1d27 | Yes | 4 | 23.0¢ | $1 | — |
| abunyee0x78b6…bc74 | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| laureman0x1359…092e | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.