Market
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 11 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kevtp0xdc4b…dbca | No | 34,995 | 93.3¢ | $33.1K | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 346 bets |
| DFK0x0dde…94c3 | No | 34,779 | 91.8¢ | $32.9K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No | 32,392 | 93.6¢ | $30.6K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| keribit0xc9dc…9026 | No | 30,000 | 92.3¢ | $28.3K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 496 bets |
| 0xe120…283e | No | 20,000 | 94.5¢ | $18.9K | New13 settled bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 20,000 | 93.2¢ | $18.9K | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |