Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
Money on this event
Room to trade
1.0¢ between buy and sell
Ends
Jan 1
in 80 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?”.
§1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
§2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
§3For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
§4Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
§5The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:37 UTC. Not financial advice.