Market
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:05 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 11 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kevtp0xdc4b…dbca | No | 34,995 | 93.3¢ | $33.1K | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 346 bets |
| DFK0x0dde…94c3 | No | 34,779 | 91.8¢ | $32.9K | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 713 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No | 32,392 | 93.6¢ | $30.6K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| keribit0xc9dc…9026 | No | 30,000 | 92.3¢ | $28.3K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 496 bets |
| 0xe120…283e | No | 20,000 | 94.5¢ | $18.9K | New13 settled bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 20,000 | 93.2¢ | $18.9K | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 7,890 | 93.3¢ | $7.46K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| xset0x431d…8fde | No | 6,175 | 93.8¢ | $5.84K | — |
| Aq4ExePrd22Jn0x0cba…92d3 | No | 6,014 | 92.2¢ | $5.68K | New44 settled bets |
| Stableincome0x2ee7…ce15 | No | 4,500 | 94.2¢ | $4.25K | New62 settled bets |
| Bromley860x0b65…293e | No | 4,000 | 92.0¢ | $3.78K | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,095 bets |
| vsesoso0x07ce…f696 | Yes | 65,323 | 6.3¢ | $3.59K | New3 settled bets |
| DegenerateJanet0x8964…0bec | No | 3,039 | 93.7¢ | $2.87K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 666 bets |
| feffefe0x8e34…4480 | No | 2,937 | 93.5¢ | $2.78K | Losing−$2.25 per $100 · 7,053 bets |
| whysoslow0x8a98…2619 | Yes | 48,922 | 7.4¢ | $2.69K | New0 settled bets |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 2,795 | 93.8¢ | $2.64K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| i4000xa18c…d792 | No | 2,500 | 93.0¢ | $2.36K | Proven+$2.81 per $100 · 776 bets |
| ABALOSPRESOPOLITICO0x027a…ea13 | No | 2,109 | 93.3¢ | $1.99K | — |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | No | 2,080 | 95.0¢ | $1.97K | — |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | No | 1,769 | 93.3¢ | $1.67K | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| gatorr0x93ab…9723 | Yes | 21,000 | 7.0¢ | $1.16K | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 937 bets |
| UniversalCarrier0x56b1…0e9f | Yes | 19,649 | 5.9¢ | $1.08K | New56 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,013 | 93.7¢ | $958 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 1,000 | 93.4¢ | $945 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $945 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 3,504 bets |
| garlictrump0x6630…2f4e | No | 1,000 | 94.0¢ | $945 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 547 bets |
| Ahpo0xcdb1…276c | No | 1,000 | 92.5¢ | $945 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 3,433 bets |
| johanshpoka0x5fd3…9334 | No | 643 | 94.0¢ | $608 | — |
| cataction0xf74d…280c | Yes | 11,000 | 5.5¢ | $605 | — |
| clumsyderpino0xa93c…2082 | No | 616 | 94.0¢ | $582 | — |
| EternalDecay0x315a…ac61 | Yes | 10,388 | 7.7¢ | $571 | New1 settled bet |
| Art08880x161a…b515 | No | 532 | 94.0¢ | $502 | — |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 8,653 | 8.2¢ | $476 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| 0x4ab7…5b3e | No | 500 | 93.0¢ | $473 | — |
| Gaujmalietis0xd883…4fd7 | No | 431 | 93.4¢ | $407 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,573 bets |
| 0x6376…f5a1 | Yes | 7,329 | 7.1¢ | $403 | — |
| tandjlover0xd542…f187 | No | 403 | 95.9¢ | $381 | — |
| Stasyan0xe3a0…4b80 | No | 380 | 95.0¢ | $359 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 349 | 95.0¢ | $330 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x91c7…b576 | No | 320 | 94.5¢ | $302 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 584 bets |
| NeonVector0xe090…d0d4 | No | 320 | 94.0¢ | $302 | — |
| Forfunzies0x16c8…cb07 | No | 300 | 93.7¢ | $284 | — |
| baybug0xfb66…5e13 | No | 250 | 92.0¢ | $236 | — |
| GTOrski10xb3af…84fc | No | 237 | 92.9¢ | $224 | New31 settled bets |
| knrad0x4d01…1645 | Yes | 3,455 | 6.0¢ | $190 | Positive+$2.87 per $100 · 1,296 bets |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $189 | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| ammarb0x5efe…5f55 | No | 200 | 91.0¢ | $189 | — |
| tilchi0x7f1d…45dc | No | 200 | 92.1¢ | $189 | — |
| 0x9152…69a5 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $189 | — |
| 0x919d…60e1 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $189 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| ogawa0xc2b3…9a90 | Yes | 3,234 | 6.0¢ | $178 | — |
| lorasw0x33be…adc8 | Yes | 2,857 | 7.0¢ | $157 | — |
| southbets0xec4e…d9db | No | 160 | 94.0¢ | $151 | — |
| e.tensor0xf855…7f43 | Yes | 2,710 | 7.6¢ | $149 | — |
| 0xc5a2…9981 | No | 130 | 93.0¢ | $123 | New91 settled bets |
| Holidayy0x7a91…903c | No | 117 | 95.0¢ | $110 | — |
| 0xa4c8…b0ec | Yes | 2,000 | 8.0¢ | $110 | New28 settled bets |
| Poopek0x8b2d…67b3 | Yes | 1,950 | 6.4¢ | $107 | — |
| 0xc10b…e3e0 | No | 106 | 94.0¢ | $101 | — |
| oovoov0x12d8…3f7c | Yes | 1,820 | 6.2¢ | $100 | — |
| Joffern0xa214…002b | No | 105 | 95.0¢ | $99 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 1,741 | 6.0¢ | $96 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 100 | 94.0¢ | $95 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| sophism0x1f7d…8235 | No | 100 | 95.0¢ | $95 | — |
| -Jarvis-0xc984…1443 | No | 100 | 94.0¢ | $95 | — |
| petryshakm0xd453…1f27 | Yes | 1,679 | 8.7¢ | $92 | — |
| JoliAnji0xf4f0…0239 | No | 97 | 95.0¢ | $91 | — |
| Dimir0xe38f…d33e | Yes | 1,333 | 6.0¢ | $73 | New36 settled bets |
| Esipovich0x6e80…986e | Yes | 1,100 | 7.0¢ | $61 | — |
| Odinsdottir0x5d01…6ca9 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.1¢ | $55 | — |
| 0x869a…bd64 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $55 | — |
| tylercooperror0xdad0…37b9 | Yes | 954 | 7.0¢ | $52 | — |
| 0x2620…78f5 | Yes | 880 | 8.0¢ | $48 | — |
| jjjjok66660x8f51…5b82 | Yes | 831 | 6.3¢ | $46 | New48 settled bets |
| Lan-U0x4cbd…5007 | Yes | 809 | 9.5¢ | $45 | — |
| 0x7136…6607 | Yes | 790 | 6.0¢ | $43 | — |
| mirand0x9cf6…559d | Yes | 667 | 6.0¢ | $37 | Proven+$2.61 per $100 · 1,039 bets |
| v1notlost0x48f9…e61d | Yes | 636 | 7.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$4.53 per $100 · 288 bets |
| shakhtior160x7188…b17b | Yes | 573 | 7.1¢ | $31 | — |
| M.G420x2992…cfff | Yes | 528 | 7.6¢ | $29 | — |
| meniaminov0x3b23…a4cc | Yes | 521 | 8.6¢ | $29 | — |
| Nilgam0xc74c…b882 | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | $28 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 456 | 6.0¢ | $25 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0x2fd5…afcf | Yes | 359 | 7.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Lbr90x4a0e…bac9 | Yes | 350 | 6.0¢ | $19 | New95 settled bets |
| Th3Uglyduckling0x8a24…9271 | Yes | 314 | 8.0¢ | $17 | — |
| sejzura0xb6dc…2f06 | Yes | 251 | 8.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Myster1o0x6597…810e | Yes | 250 | 8.0¢ | $14 | — |
| ZnotluvuiSamez0x2889…9226 | Yes | 245 | 8.2¢ | $13 | New43 settled bets |
| 0xac5d…0234 | Yes | 209 | 6.7¢ | $12 | — |
| Serg0010x26ad…8c4e | Yes | 200 | 7.0¢ | $11 | — |
| JJoyce19040xe298…9ef4 | Yes | 200 | 6.0¢ | $11 | — |
| pjotrekkk0xf102…1348 | Yes | 200 | 6.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.29 per $100 · 20,519 bets |
| godblessed070xf3d7…6ff1 | Yes | 188 | 8.0¢ | $10 | — |
| mmmvladosia0x22f4…a04c | Yes | 167 | 6.0¢ | $9 | — |
| M8M8M0x9d38…973d | Yes | 167 | 6.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Elenai0x194c…1315 | Yes | 160 | 9.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x0c15…9a45 | Yes | 158 | 7.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$15.84 per $100 · 1,142 bets |
| 0x7e23…b96f | Yes | 155 | 6.5¢ | $9 | — |
| deyka0xa7c8…9ee8 | Yes | 151 | 6.6¢ | $8 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.