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Topic · Geopolitics
235 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
5.3% of Polymarket
Events · markets
115 · 235
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 81 days
Biggest first · chance of Yes
| Market | Event | Chance | This week | Ends | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | Putin out as President of Russia by...? | 2.9¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $7.48M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:13 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? |
| 2.8¢ |
| down 0.4 points this week |
| Jan 1 |
| $0.97M |
| December 31 | NATO x Russia military clash by...? | 24.5¢ | up 3 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.81M |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 6.5¢ | up 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.77M |
| October 31 | NATO x Russia military clash by...? | 6.5¢ | down 2 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.52M |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 15.5¢ | up 3 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.41M |
| December 31 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 17.5¢ | up 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.41M |
| December 31 | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? | 11.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Dec 31 | $0.35M |
| October 31 | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? | 3.3¢ | – | Oct 31 | $0.30M |
| October 31 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 4.1¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.29M |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | 8.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.28M |
| December 31, 2026 | Will Russia invade another country by...? | 6.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.27M |
| December 31, 2026 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? | 5.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0.25M |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | 0.8¢ | down 0.9 points this week | Nov 1 | $0.23M |
| December 31, 2026 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? | 5.5¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.22M |
| June 30, 2027 | Putin out as President of Russia by...? | 10.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jul 1 | $0.18M |
| December 31, 2026 | Russia military action against EU country by...? | 8.0¢ | down 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.10M |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Lyman by...? | 5.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $97.9K |
| October 31 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...? | 2.7¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Nov 1 | $81.6K |
| December 31 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 54.0¢ | down 10.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $79.1K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? | 14.0¢ | down 8 points this week | Jan 1 | $73.2K |
| March 31, 2027 | Will Russia capture Sumy by...? | 4.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Apr 1 | $69.1K |
| October 31 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 21.0¢ | down 11 points this week | Oct 31 | $66.4K |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | 4.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $66.2K |
| December 31 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...? | 6.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $63.9K |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | 34.5¢ | – | Nov 1 | $59.0K |
| December 31 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...? | 10.5¢ | up 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $53.6K |
| Druzkhivka | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 35.5¢ | up 3 points this week | Jan 1 | $52.0K |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027? | 6.5¢ | up 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $49.0K |
| Kramatorsk | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 11.0¢ | down 5.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $48.9K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by...? | 20.5¢ | down 3.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $47.1K |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | 4.0¢ | – | Jan 1 | $46.5K |
| Zaporizhia | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 2.6¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $36.7K |
| No meeting by December 31 | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 18.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $35.8K |
| October 31 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 2.3¢ | down 0.3 points this week | Nov 1 | $33.2K |
| October 15 | Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? | 2.1¢ | down 8.8 points this week | Oct 15 | $31.0K |
| Sloviansk | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 8.0¢ | down 4.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $31.0K |
| December 31, 2026 | Ukraine election held by...? | 4.3¢ | up 2.7 points this week | Jan 1 | $30.4K |
| December 31, 2026 | Russia coup attempt by...? | 3.5¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $29.7K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...? | 4.1¢ | up 1.7 points this week | Jan 1 | $28.5K |
| December 31, 2026 | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...? | 1.8¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $28.2K |
| March 31, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 33.5¢ | – | Apr 1 | $27.1K |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 4.0¢ | down 2 points this week | Jan 1 | $26.5K |
| Vladimir Putin | Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | 80.5¢ | down 2 points this week | Dec 31 | $26.3K |
| June 30, 2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 50.5¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Jul 1 | $24.0K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? | 25.5¢ | down 3.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $23.0K |
| Kharkiv | Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | 1.4¢ | down 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $20.3K |
| China | Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | 76.5¢ | – | Jan 1 | $20.1K |
| December 31 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? | 17.0¢ | up 3 points this week | Jan 1 | $17.9K |
| June 30, 2027 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? | 60.0¢ | up 1 point this week | Jul 1 | $17.8K |