Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

Decided by

A human case of pneumonic plague outside Russia confirmed and linked to the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute outbreak by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1

Bubonic to pneumonic

A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies.§4

Report after deadline

A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.§7

Publication date governs

Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not exposure, onset or lab result date.§6

No case

Otherwise, the market resolves to "No".§2

Counted

A human pneumonic plague case outside the Russian Federation; a confirmed case means lab-confirmed Yersinia pestis with pneumonic involvement or announced as…§3

Source

The WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§8

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.