Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:17 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
13 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikitka0x2970…e1c9 | Yes | 8,296 | 59.6¢ | $4.52K | Losing−$23.15 per $100 · 399 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 5,693 | 58.0¢ | $3.1K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| ihorkoval0xbc48…47bb | No | 5,022 | 49.6¢ | $2.29K | — |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 4,900 | 38.9¢ | $2.23K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | Yes | 3,813 | 66.1¢ | $2.08K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 3,750 | 55.9¢ | $2.04K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |