Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:17 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
13 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikitka0x2970…e1c9 | Yes | 8,294 | 59.6¢ | $4.35K | Losing−$23.15 per $100 · 399 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 5,693 | 58.0¢ | $2.99K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| ihorkoval0xbc48…47bb | No | 5,022 | 49.6¢ | $2.39K | — |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 4,900 | 38.9¢ | $2.33K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | Yes | 3,813 | 66.1¢ | $2K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 3,750 | 55.9¢ | $1.97K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| ev17100x3c4f…831e | Yes | 3,000 | 50.0¢ | $1.57K | — |
| i.love.Frieren0x314c…69dd | Yes | 2,513 | 59.7¢ | $1.32K | New87 settled bets |
| edinani1230xd99c…4015 | Yes | 2,279 | 75.5¢ | $1.2K | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 2,478 | 34.2¢ | $1.18K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 2,000 | 30.0¢ | $950 | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 1,744 | 30.0¢ | $829 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 1,729 | 44.4¢ | $821 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| Mytytytyyyty0x62de…e70b | Yes | 1,500 | 54.3¢ | $787 | Losing−$5.56 per $100 · 122 bets |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | Yes | 1,260 | 71.4¢ | $662 | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 124 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 1,100 | 55.6¢ | $577 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| nosmartanon0x722d…c0b8 | Yes | 1,088 | 64.3¢ | $571 | New0 settled bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 1,172 | 24.5¢ | $557 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| Dragondoublehead0x0c20…6291 | No | 1,135 | 44.1¢ | $539 | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 1,000 | 68.1¢ | $525 | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | No | 1,081 | 37.0¢ | $514 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 971 | 68.0¢ | $510 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,061 bets |
| trx10xc6a2…c9b7 | Yes | 920 | 53.7¢ | $483 | Proven+$5.61 per $100 · 172 bets |
| 0xb943…9bbe | No | 1,016 | 49.2¢ | $483 | — |
| inev0xcdde…f383 | Yes | 917 | 54.5¢ | $481 | — |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 1,000 | 37.0¢ | $475 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| somedud0x05bd…f720 | No | 992 | 32.6¢ | $471 | — |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | No | 949 | 40.5¢ | $451 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 847 | 45.0¢ | $445 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 66,068 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 856 | 43.0¢ | $407 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| Delarge0xabd8…141d | No | 847 | 32.0¢ | $402 | — |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 796 | 50.4¢ | $378 | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 684 | 58.4¢ | $359 | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 10,279 bets |
| amused850x8fe7…4f20 | No | 727 | 26.6¢ | $345 | Losing−$2.18 per $100 · 5,572 bets |
| brokemane0x47dc…c27e | No | 717 | 41.8¢ | $341 | — |
| QuarterlyComeback0x5a22…17a6 | No | 708 | 35.3¢ | $336 | Proven+$7.94 per $100 · 469 bets |
| FirstAMan0xf23e…d7f0 | No | 690 | 29.0¢ | $328 | — |
| 0x9957…8efa | No | 689 | 35.7¢ | $327 | — |
| poolysydney0x5576…0a66 | No | 665 | 33.3¢ | $316 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 617 | 33.6¢ | $293 | Proven+$14.71 per $100 · 249 bets |
| Fireostendere0x1e02…aee1 | No | 600 | 50.0¢ | $285 | — |
| vonPommern0x78ae…143a | No | 600 | 33.8¢ | $285 | — |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 600 | 36.9¢ | $285 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 533 | 58.9¢ | $280 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | Yes | 529 | 57.3¢ | $278 | New11 settled bets |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 560 | 28.0¢ | $266 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x54a5…ee3d | Yes | 506 | 68.0¢ | $266 | New96 settled bets |
| Memento.Mori0x3b06…3489 | No | 556 | 36.1¢ | $264 | — |
| alpaca0x5da5…e620 | Yes | 495 | 58.0¢ | $260 | Losing−$6.68 per $100 · 287 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 491 | 63.7¢ | $258 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | No | 540 | 42.5¢ | $257 | — |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 466 | 68.7¢ | $245 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| bender220x9053…8d97 | No | 504 | 40.7¢ | $239 | — |
| 0xef7c…74eb | Yes | 454 | 64.7¢ | $239 | — |
| BenjaminNetAnYahoo0xfb46…f68b | No | 501 | 39.9¢ | $238 | — |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | Yes | 437 | 52.0¢ | $229 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| garlictrump0x6630…2f4e | No | 454 | 42.1¢ | $216 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 547 bets |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | No | 450 | 47.1¢ | $214 | — |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | No | 444 | 35.0¢ | $211 | New56 settled bets |
| Polocap0xac42…60d1 | Yes | 400 | 54.2¢ | $210 | — |
| forspeak0xdfc9…d631 | No | 423 | 44.9¢ | $201 | — |
| 0x7658…e770 | No | 404 | 44.6¢ | $192 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 169 bets |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 400 | 50.0¢ | $190 | — |
| santanika0xc450…6b80 | Yes | 355 | 60.0¢ | $186 | — |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | Yes | 340 | 72.5¢ | $179 | — |
| wukong63630x5888…940e | Yes | 333 | 60.0¢ | $175 | New25 settled bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 321 | 54.5¢ | $168 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 338 | 41.3¢ | $161 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 300 | 55.7¢ | $158 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| 0x1aac…66fb | No | 303 | 33.0¢ | $144 | — |
| sayrus0xf1f7…fa11 | No | 300 | 50.0¢ | $143 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 289 | 39.6¢ | $137 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xe2bf…8d01 | No | 285 | 46.0¢ | $135 | — |
| arlongur0x6672…e975 | Yes | 250 | 59.0¢ | $131 | — |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 241 | 46.9¢ | $126 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| a9-M0x630f…5501 | No | 256 | 37.9¢ | $121 | — |
| Fermatter0x0d09…dd55 | No | 255 | 34.7¢ | $121 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 2,822 bets |
| 0x3e20x3e23…8579 | No | 255 | 46.0¢ | $121 | — |
| Vladen0x62a9…b895 | No | 250 | 40.0¢ | $119 | — |
| 0xeffe…5efa | No | 250 | 40.0¢ | $119 | New85 settled bets |
| lina1iq0xe5a7…e65b | No | 240 | 33.3¢ | $114 | — |
| No-bet-no-life0x8d08…9165 | Yes | 200 | 58.0¢ | $105 | — |
| Seenelice0x8edb…d34d | Yes | 200 | 0.0¢ | $105 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 200 | 63.5¢ | $105 | — |
| exitnull0xb45c…bb96 | No | 210 | 47.5¢ | $100 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 185 | 57.7¢ | $97 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 180 | 52.0¢ | $95 | Proven+$6.72 per $100 · 6,681 bets |
| 0x2503…9be5 | Yes | 176 | 65.2¢ | $93 | — |
| 0x6465…606e | Yes | 152 | 72.0¢ | $80 | — |
| latvianboy0x5bae…2955 | Yes | 150 | 69.0¢ | $79 | New25 settled bets |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | Yes | 130 | 60.0¢ | $68 | — |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | Yes | 100 | 63.0¢ | $53 | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| Art08880x161a…b515 | Yes | 85 | 59.0¢ | $44 | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 384 bets |
| 0xd169…216f | Yes | 76 | 52.6¢ | $40 | — |
| 0xd94d…e6cf | Yes | 71 | 70.0¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x6a95…27c5 | Yes | 66 | 56.0¢ | $35 | — |
| JohnLee3140x5fb6…c707 | Yes | 66 | 61.0¢ | $34 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 65.0¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| helpinghans0x6944…7275 | Yes | 50 | 63.0¢ | $26 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.