October 31

Decided by

The market resolves Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine exists by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No.§1

Qualifying broader deals

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause qualifies if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of…§4

Future talks excluded

Agreements outlining future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting do not qualify.§5

Informal or unilateral

Informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities is not a ceasefire…§6

Limited scope excluded

Only a general pause in the conflict qualifies; agreements applying only to specific conflict categories, such as certain targets or locations, do not.§7

Counted

A ceasefire agreement: any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine.§3

Source

Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.§10

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31, 2027 71.0¢
• November 30, 2027 68.0¢
• October 31, 2027 64.5¢
• September 30, 2027 61.0¢
• August 31, 2027 58.0¢
• July 31, 2027 54.0¢
• June 30, 2027 51.0¢
• May 31, 2027 48.0¢
• April 30, 2027 39.0¢
• March 31, 2027 34.0¢
• February 28, 2027 27.0¢
• January 31, 2027 23.5¢

3 more outcomes in this event.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.