Market · 15 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbe48…683f | No | 24,831 | 80.5¢ | $23.7K | New22 settled bets |
| How.Dare.You0x4bbe…2cf3 | No | 20,076 | 82.4¢ | $19.2K | Losing−$4.63 per $100 · 1,350 bets |
| Jest550xd34b…0004 | No | 19,096 | 95.1¢ | $18.2K | Proven+$5.65 per $100 · 2,690 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 14,516 | 75.1¢ | $13.9K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,967 bets |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv0x57b0…76f4 | No | 12,726 | 95.1¢ | $12.2K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,947 bets |
| Moonshot10190x9c98…f4f4 | No | 10,402 | 76.6¢ | $9.94K | — |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | No | 9,000 | 86.6¢ | $8.6K | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,477 bets |
| Rummia0x742d…203b | No | 8,467 | 75.0¢ | $8.09K | New8 settled bets |
| Baristas0x8b04…84da | No | 7,059 | 95.7¢ | $6.75K | — |
| doublepepperoni0xd3fe…7926 | No | 6,998 | 94.0¢ | $6.69K | — |
| BigBusinessPro0x71b5…1231 | No | 6,939 | 78.0¢ | $6.63K | New1 settled bet |
| Cheremsha0x498d…3e20 | No | 6,667 | 75.0¢ | $6.37K | New33 settled bets |
| 0x88c8…8c31 | No | 5,308 | 93.0¢ | $5.07K | — |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 5,000 | 78.0¢ | $4.78K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| xoua0xda3f…c282 | No | 5,000 | 63.0¢ | $4.78K | — |
| pagliacci40x9b55…1167 | No | 4,616 | 96.0¢ | $4.41K | — |
| cat-dog0x7056…c95c | No | 4,500 | 91.8¢ | $4.3K | Positive+$21.47 per $100 · 139 bets |
| 0x2bf7…be49 | No | 4,395 | 89.9¢ | $4.2K | New1 settled bet |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 4,382 | 92.7¢ | $4.19K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 4,176 | 64.0¢ | $3.99K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| wowfarm0x2ada…2f28 | No | 4,000 | 96.0¢ | $3.82K | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 10,714 bets |
| 0x8333…ef3e | No | 3,758 | 93.1¢ | $3.59K | New73 settled bets |
| Marc3450x0911…6594 | No | 3,232 | 92.8¢ | $3.09K | New9 settled bets |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | No | 3,000 | 93.0¢ | $2.87K | New56 settled bets |
| most80x0b56…3f6b | No | 3,000 | 64.0¢ | $2.87K | New6 settled bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 3,000 | 84.8¢ | $2.87K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 2,871 | 65.0¢ | $2.74K | — |
| LPTT0xb5f2…f61a | No | 2,783 | 71.9¢ | $2.66K | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 2,740 | 64.5¢ | $2.62K | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,713 bets |
| zctrading0x7e5b…e00b | No | 2,710 | 91.0¢ | $2.59K | New27 settled bets |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | No | 2,686 | 93.4¢ | $2.57K | New11 settled bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | No | 2,533 | 73.2¢ | $2.42K | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| whoamipythok0x6594…c521 | No | 2,500 | 82.0¢ | $2.39K | New18 settled bets |
| kuinji0x7c7a…2cd2 | No | 2,460 | 91.0¢ | $2.35K | New12 settled bets |
| Lamantinka0xbb98…6d3c | No | 2,406 | 96.0¢ | $2.3K | — |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 2,375 | 85.9¢ | $2.27K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Manzana6980x4727…5aa5 | No | 2,145 | 0.0¢ | $2.05K | New55 settled bets |
| Cattail0xc4c1…7324 | No | 2,051 | 82.1¢ | $1.96K | — |
| Terabithiawz0x8242…6577 | No | 2,000 | 72.5¢ | $1.91K | Losing−$2.13 per $100 · 149 bets |
| WerderBremen040x28eb…5424 | No | 1,948 | 77.0¢ | $1.86K | New16 settled bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 1,847 | 95.2¢ | $1.76K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| 0x6868…a90a | No | 1,600 | 75.6¢ | $1.53K | New38 settled bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 1,555 | 93.4¢ | $1.49K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| Abc09010x3cbd…9742 | No | 1,507 | 94.2¢ | $1.44K | New38 settled bets |
| yen4u0xf0d5…c665 | No | 1,484 | 72.4¢ | $1.42K | Losing−$5.26 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 31,756 | 6.6¢ | $1.41K | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 373 bets |
| vik120xbe62…abd1 | No | 1,399 | 93.5¢ | $1.34K | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 29,008 | 26.9¢ | $1.29K | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Optimus-0xd5b9…e44e | No | 1,271 | 65.0¢ | $1.21K | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 3,042 bets |
| MykolaShepida0x7ebd…6dc0 | No | 1,243 | 90.3¢ | $1.19K | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 260 bets |
| 0xa2c6…757b | Yes | 24,945 | 34.8¢ | $1.11K | — |
| Salamandra1110xe6c4…c574 | No | 1,149 | 87.0¢ | $1.1K | New17 settled bets |
| shirase550x84a7…b6c5 | No | 1,109 | 90.0¢ | $1.06K | New6 settled bets |
| I0I0I00x758c…074a | Yes | 23,336 | 6.2¢ | $1.04K | New81 settled bets |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | Yes | 15,000 | 20.0¢ | $667 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| Hazya0xe795…6068 | Yes | 13,757 | 6.7¢ | $612 | — |
| Draffa0xaacb…90cb | Yes | 11,014 | 4.1¢ | $490 | — |
| aigiul0x29c2…6bd4 | Yes | 9,500 | 25.0¢ | $423 | New6 settled bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 8,500 | 22.6¢ | $378 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Themagician070x7655…358c | Yes | 8,037 | 15.2¢ | $358 | New33 settled bets |
| WCBT0x66d7…5b7b | Yes | 7,107 | 27.5¢ | $316 | Losing−$9.96 per $100 · 283 bets |
| Get100x904f…50c6 | Yes | 6,686 | 8.7¢ | $298 | — |
| illumination0xe1b5…8378 | Yes | 6,500 | 4.8¢ | $289 | New68 settled bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 6,150 | 25.3¢ | $274 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 5,000 | 14.0¢ | $222 | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 4,552 | 5.0¢ | $203 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| riskybetalltheway0x2f03…ec6a | Yes | 4,322 | 27.8¢ | $192 | New97 settled bets |
| 0xc869…284f | Yes | 3,827 | 43.1¢ | $170 | — |
| StoneMarble0xbef5…1c5a | Yes | 3,353 | 16.9¢ | $149 | New45 settled bets |
| ScaryDream0xd8e5…b808 | Yes | 3,273 | 4.7¢ | $146 | — |
| AAVVAA0xb2c4…43e8 | Yes | 3,048 | 20.8¢ | $136 | — |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 2,816 | 15.0¢ | $125 | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| nuyfuy0x85c1…e110 | Yes | 2,800 | 32.0¢ | $125 | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 2,578 | 13.8¢ | $115 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| AgricultureSecretary0x6ffb…a834 | Yes | 2,550 | 7.4¢ | $113 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 13,578 bets |
| Gohst0x2d4b…ca7a | Yes | 2,532 | 34.2¢ | $113 | Proven+$80.31 per $100 · 2,060 bets |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | Yes | 2,526 | 23.0¢ | $112 | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 2,479 | 7.0¢ | $110 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| bobo0350x7d78…ffa6 | Yes | 2,412 | 4.3¢ | $107 | Positive+$4.69 per $100 · 278 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,166 | 22.9¢ | $96 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| gfdgfddd0xc8df…7140 | Yes | 2,111 | 17.0¢ | $94 | — |
| 0x3741…fedf | Yes | 1,969 | 7.0¢ | $88 | New18 settled bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 1,904 | 6.6¢ | $85 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| asdfasdav0xe2a9…50cb | Yes | 1,884 | 11.9¢ | $84 | New48 settled bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 1,754 | 22.0¢ | $78 | Proven+$3.19 per $100 · 465 bets |
| Max130xd2c9…6dcb | Yes | 1,727 | 29.0¢ | $77 | — |
| ELEZIOR-TV0xd286…2322 | Yes | 1,713 | 25.1¢ | $76 | Losing−$14.52 per $100 · 1,809 bets |
| dadaaaaa0x7dd0…2c4d | Yes | 1,581 | 4.0¢ | $70 | New2 settled bets |
| 07f9b13da4c476b60x0bd7…8ce8 | Yes | 1,450 | 4.9¢ | $65 | New0 settled bets |
| intwit0xdbb4…afe9 | Yes | 1,408 | 29.9¢ | $63 | — |
| gimbobo0xd7a2…2b21 | Yes | 1,249 | 3.8¢ | $56 | — |
| alivedeer0xe0c5…913c | Yes | 1,234 | 4.7¢ | $55 | Losing−$12.71 per $100 · 427 bets |
| Denis990xc6a2…d076 | Yes | 1,200 | 27.6¢ | $53 | New72 settled bets |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 1,180 | 33.9¢ | $53 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | Yes | 1,150 | 12.0¢ | $51 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| AAAA-17074931883270xe34b…02d3 | Yes | 1,053 | 19.0¢ | $47 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 1,042 | 5.4¢ | $46 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| simonghost0x133f…d45d | Yes | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $45 | New30 settled bets |
| rip0x5950…8c48 | Yes | 1,000 | 25.2¢ | $45 | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 647 bets |
| SITIFUKUDZIN0xc406…ba02 | Yes | 1,000 | 26.0¢ | $45 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.