October 31

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
3. §3A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
4. §4A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
5. §5Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
6. §6Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
7. §7Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
8. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.