Market · 9 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
3 more outcomes in this event.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 1,000 | 60.3¢ | $610 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 968 | 59.3¢ | $591 | — |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 1,469 | 39.7¢ | $573 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 3,504 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 678 | 40.1¢ | $264 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 331 | 60.3¢ | $202 | — |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 500 | 39.0¢ | $195 | Positive+$6.46 per $100 · 7,356 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.