Market · 3 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 2,451 | 64.6¢ | $1.59K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| DavidofAnalytics0x039e…c5e0 | No | 1,174 | 36.1¢ | $411 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 1,000 | 35.0¢ | $350 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 222 | 61.2¢ | $145 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| noname-0x0e4f…b706 | No | 300 | 38.0¢ | $105 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 100 | 63.0¢ | $65 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
3 more outcomes in this event.